Snookerbacker

January 17, 2018

The Masters Quarter Finals

Filed under: snookerbacker @ 4:59 pm

After an eventful first round at Alexandra Palace it’s now time to turn our attention to the Quarter Finals played over the best of eleven frames on Thursday and Friday. 

The betting so far has been almost Nostradamus-esque so let’s see if we can keep the good run going. I hope some of you followed the advice and made a few quid out of the first round.  

The matches are listed below in the order that they are being played and if you click on the match it will take you to the head to head record between the two protagonists.

Ronnie O’Sullivan v Mark Allen (Thursday 1pm)

The Superlative Police were out in force for Ronnie after his dazzling display against Marco Fu. John Parrott’s eyebrows were arched to their ultimate peak and even Stephen Hendry smiled at one point, that’s how good it was. Here he’s back at his favourite stomping ground to take on Mark Allen who lost to him over this distance recently at the Champion of Champions. Allen hasn’t beaten Ronnie since 2011 but it’s quite strange given their stature in the game that they haven’t played each other more often. It goes without saying that if Ronnie plays like he did against Marco, then nobody is going to stop him this week, but if he’s a little out of kilter I’d say Allen is the sort of player that could put up a decent fight. Allen himself took care of an under par Luca Brecel in the first round and looked pretty good but this is a whole different bag of onions. Despite the fact that Ronnie’s low on magnesium and seeing double, only a very brave punter would lay a penny against him here. He shows no signs of letting anyone get close to him so I’ll go for a repeat of their match in Coventry.

Prediction: O’Sullivan 6-2.

Recommended Bet: Under 8.5 frames in the match at 11/8 and Ronnie (-2.5 frames) at 5/6

Kyren Wilson v Mark Williams (Thursday 7pm)

Despite the excitement generated by Ronnie, the resurgent Mark Williams was the star of Round 1 for me. He was on the verge of a 6-3 defeat against Selby and showed incredible composure to get himself back in it and win a decider. The way he is around the table at the moment reminds me of him at his very best and when he is playing like that I’d argue he is as good to watch as Ronnie is. However, in their only two meaningful battles, MJW is yet to beat his opponent here Kyren, but it has to be said that they are not comparable to this match which is by far and away their biggest duel to date. Kyren played well against Barry Hawkins but didn’t impress as much as Williams did, especially towards the end of the match when it got a bit tense and a repeat of that if this goes close won’t be good for him. For me, Williams in this form is a must back until he shows signs of it beginning to fade, he’s working hard away from the event, putting in hours of practice befitting of a mustard keen junior player and his appetite for the game is almost now rivalling his appetite for a cheeky Nando’s. I’m 100% in the Williams camp on this one.

Prediction: Williams 6-3

Recommended Bet: Williams (-1.5 frames) at Evens     

Judd Trump v Shaun Murphy (Friday 1pm)

Attention all pockets. Many people’s idea of the match of the round here between two players whose previous head to head stats are heavily skewed by best of five Championship League meetings. However if we drill deeper into the stats and take out the minor meetings we find that it’s Judd who holds a commanding lead, with Shaun’s only really meaningful win against him coming over a decade ago in the 2007 World Championship when Judd was just learning the ropes. Since then it’s been largely Judd all the way and perhaps that tells us that the way Shaun approaches the game is right up Judd’s street. I have detected a change in Murphy over the last few months though and if confidence is any pointer to the winner here he’d be favourite, but that head to head record does just place that doubt in my mind and I’d imagine that’s why the bookies make Judd a fairly strong favourite. I’ll be honest, I started writing this thinking of tipping up Murphy, but often you have to go with patterns and that’s when I started having doubts. What I will say is that I think Murphy is a better player now than he was 6 months ago and I’m not sure I’d say the same thing about Judd, so with all that taken into account I’ll take Murphy to pinch it, but not by much.

Prediction: Murphy 6-5

Recommended Bet: Over 9.5 frames in the match at Evens.      

John Higgins v Ryan Day (Friday 7pm)

I always get lambasted on Twitter when I say I don’t really like watching Higgins, perhaps it’s that old British thing of not really supporting winners, but that doesn’t really tally with my admiration for other champions and how they play the game. Sometimes I suppose a player just doesn’t float your boat and that’s Higgins with me. As you’d expect he holds a commanding lead in the head to heads over Ryan Day, who continued his strong recent form with a win over Ding in Round 1. Higgins was at his tenacious best towards the end of the match against McGill and similarly I think Day is a little in awe of John and I can see this match going largely the same way. I expect Higgins to win but given Ryan’s form I can’t see him getting hammered, he has beaten Higgins over similar distances before so it’s not exactly unchartered territory for him and my guess is that he’ll just want to go out and continue to enjoy his rich run of form without worrying too much about the result. There’s been 7 centuries in their last 3 encounters and given the pockets here are playing quite generously, that’s where I’ll be putting my money.

Prediction: Higgins 6-4

Recommended Bet: Over 1 century in the match at 11/10  

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