The Snookerbacker Blog

Mark Allen is back to defend his title, unfortunately Freddie Mercury is currently dead.

Dead Cats, that is what most people remember about the World Open last season as it was here that Mark Allen famously upset an entire nation with his thoughts on the venue and the people in it before scurrying off with the trophy without so much as a farewell wave to poor old Tiddles.

Despite the fact that our Mark had a rotten time here he is back this week to defend his title on Hainan Island. The tournament is sponsored by Yearly Yuan-Jiang Gujinggong Liquor, try saying that when your pissed, in fact try saying it when you’re sober.

Earlier this week German Master Ali Carter pulled out of the event due to ill-health, I hope he’s feeling better soon as he promised in Berlin to give me another Captain’s Log soon, but I’ll understand if he’s not feeling up to it and given his ongoing battle with Crohn’s it’s hardly surprising that a trip to somewhere with questionable hygiene levels if Mark is to be believed isn’t high on his list of things to do. His Captain’s Logs might take on a whole new dimension if you catch my drift.

But apart from Ali and the currently resting Ronnie O’Sullivan and the suspended Stephen Lee it’s all the usual suspects turning up for business. The event is still subject to the tiresome and unneccesary wildcard round which is always guaranteed to make my blood boil. Thankfully when the flatter structures come into play they will have to dispense with this unfair initiative, apart from at the stubborn and backward thinking Shanghai Masters which will retain the current structure next season, bin the sponsors I say.

A copy of the draw for the event can be found here and the schedule session can be viewed here. The tournament also marks the rebirth of live snooker on ITV in the UK and a long overdue return to TV work for the great Sir Clive of Everton. This is a very welcome step in the right direction negotiated by World Snooker and they deserve a lot of credit for getting this network back on board for something other than the dreadful PowerSnooker.

This has all been done despite the fact that some of the tabloid hacks seem intent on ruining the sport in the UK forever with the likes of their poor excuse for journalism today which was littered with inaccuracies and mistakes. It would be nice if the retards that wrote this bollocks checked their facts now and again, but they can’t even transcribe the interview into text properly and this tells you the level of shaved chimp we are dealing with here, so desperate to be the name that brings snooker’s downfall ever closer that they forget to actually check the facts.

As for Jogia and those who egged him on and supported him in his quest to make a few quid including those from so called professional bodies who were behind him and his story from the beginning even to the extent of looking at (but failing in) funding his appeal, all I will say is that if his allegations about the Far-East betting syndicates are true, I hope he and they have a good bodyguard and/or life insurance policy as my guess is that those kind of people don’t mess about in the way they conduct their business. I can push the boat out on here sometimes I know but if Joe carries on with this line of appeal he’s probably going to need more than a pair of crutches in a few months time.

Anyway, after all that unpleasantness it’s time for a look at the draw itself. In terms of outright picks lately we’ve been doing quite well in marking up Judd to win the International Championship at 8/1, Selby to win the Masters at 15/2 and Ali to win in Berlin at 25/1 so let’s see if we can keep the run going.

Here is a breakdown of the prize money on offer in this event:

Winner: £85,000
Runner-up: £35,000
Semi-finals: £20,000
Quarter-finals: £11,000
Last 16: £7,500
Last 32: £6,000
Last 48: £2,300
Last 64: £1,500
High TV break: £3,500
High non-TV break: £700
Total: £425,000 

Apollobet have decided to go best price on every player in the outright market so if you are following me in make sure you place your bets with the blog partners. If you don’t have an account with them click here to open one, if you do click here to check out their outright prices and here to check out their Specials. 

Charming

Quarter One:

This quarter sees the defending champion Allen at the head of the draw with some real threats around him, including his first round opponent Ryan Day who is more than capable of causing an upset. Also in this section is the newly crowned Welsh Open champion Stephen Maguire who promised to hold the mother of all parties in Glasgow after winning in Newport. Given the Scottish reputation for liking their booze, that on its own is enough to stop me recommending him for the follow-up victory as he’s probably still pissed now, he’s also up against Marcus Campbell who was probably at the party with him, there could be carnage. Dark Mavis is obviously a danger but both him and Ricky Walden who is also in this section have gone a bit flat lately and whilst they have both produced in China this season I think they may be best watched until some sign that their form is returning. Peter Ebdon is also here and even though he has been pretty awful lately that fits with how he’s been in the past when he’s come to China and won a tournament out of the blue so a saver on him over there is always recommended, but on balance I’d take Allen to win this quarter and if he does he’s always a danger at the business end of things.

Recommended Bet: 2 points on Mark Allen to win the World Open at 12/1 and 0.5 points each way on Peter Ebdon at 55/1, both prices with Apollobet.

Due a win in China

Quarter Two:

Another high quality quarter with the likes of John Higgins, new dad Mark Williams, Stuart Bingham, Ding Junhui and Marco Fu all involved. I am still unconvinced that Higgins will come back to form this season, his game does not look right to me and I maintain that getting that table in his house rather than ‘going to work’ every day at the club is behind his sudden slump in form, I can’t back him until he starts showing something like his old self and weirdly for him he is missing pressure balls and that is very odd to see. His career has mirrored Stephen Hendry more than any other player’s has and perhaps this is the start of the slide that inevitably happens to prolific winners as they approach their 40′s. A much more appealing prospect in that section is Bingham, he’s bang in form and now a proven top drawer player who will be giving it his all again, he could go close this week. But I am going to take another chance on Ding here, OK his form in China in the past couple of seasons doesn’t instill a lot of confidence but surely it has to end somewhere, he’s playing as well as he has for a bit and I think he might just have a run in this one at what I’d say is a nice price.

Recommended Bet: 2 points on Ding Junhui to win the World Open at 16/1 with Apollobet.

Gould: Big Price

Quarter Three:

The draw has opened up a little for tournament favourite Judd Trump with Ali Carter’s withdrawal but he still might face the man who dumped him out of the UK Mark Joyce in the first round so he might not have things all his own way. For me at the moment, Judd like Higgins is a player to watch to see if his form looks like returning, that might sound a very silly remark about a player who made the semi-finals in the last ranking event and is back at world number one but the minute he came up against a really top player in Newport he lost and I think it will happen again here. Of more interest to me is the match at the bottom of this quarter between Shaun Murphy and Martin Gould, both of whom I consider as top players. I reckon the winner of that match will win this quarter, but here’s the rub, Martin has never beaten Shaun in five attempts and Smurf is a famously solid starter at tournaments and rarely loses in the first round, but the gulf in price is making me favour the Pinner Potter from a value perspective  (I know, I know, you can’t spend value) and if he beats Shaun for me he has a huge chance of making the semi-finals despite the presence of Trump and Dave Gilbert who given Matthew Stevens’ recent form will fancy his chances of progressing assuming he beats his no-pushover wildcard Li Ning.

Recommended Bet: 1 point each way on Martin Gould to win the World Open at 50/1 with Apollobet.

Selby – really small picture

Quarter Four: 

Neil Robertson and Mark Selby dominate this quarter and it would be a brave punter that would bet against them meeting in the last eight despite the fact that both have looked a little season-weary of late. For me Robbo in particular looks like he needs a month off, he doesn’t look as sharp as he did at the start of the season and to some extent the same can be said for Selby, but I just think the Jester copes a little better with tour fatigue and sometimes he looks like he sleeps in a coffin and is charged up by electricity as he rests so I would not be at all surprised if he got back to winning ways again here. Graeme Dott and Barry Hawkins would appear to be the main dangers to the big two and Dott of course can never be written off, but in terms of a player that I can see carrying off the trophy and yet another big cheque most next weekend it has to be Selby, who I reckon will want his number one spot back as well as putting his name firmly in the frame of challengers should a certain absentee decide he is coming to a party in May on Tuesday.

Recommended Bet: 3 points on Mark Selby to win the World Open at 15/2 with Apollobet.