The Snookerbacker Blog

Not quite the reception he can expect in this.

It’s the Final Day of qualifying from Sheffield and this sees some big names playing in conditions to which they are mostly unaccustomed. The likes of Neil Robertson, Ali Carter, Shaun Murphy and Stephen Maguire all have to play their qualifying matches before playing in the main venue, unlike some of their lower ranked peers including Welshman Ryan Day and Coventry’s Dominic Dale who get to play their matches in Newport.

It seems fairly universally accepted from people who know about such things that the Welsh Open is really losing its way now, I’m not at all sure why that is the case while there is still the coverage offered on BBC Wales which most Sky viewers can access, as well as the exposure it gets on Eurosport.

Decisions such as previous ones like the length of the matches and the never ones like the players they have decided to risk not qualifying to the televised stages at the expense of less attractive options all add to the mystery surrounding the misguided decision making processes where this tournament is involved.

Dave Hendon seems to share my view that the future of this event is in the balance for whatever reason and you can read his thoughts on the matter here.

But all that aside we still have a ranking event ahead of us and that means there will be daily coverage on here, even though I will be largely boycotting match betting as I can’t form a proper opinion with any confidence in best of seven framers.

It’s a big day for the reigning SB Classic Champion (for just a couple more weeks at least) Martin O’Donnell. The MO’D faces Ricky Walden for a place at his second consecutive venue after his experience in Berlin so I’ll be getting sorted to watch that on the live stream.

Here are the final set of matches, all winners will be lining up at Newport:

10am

Ali Carter v Gerard Greene
Neil Robertson v Duane Jones
Jamie Burnett v Craig Steadman
Stuart Bingham v Matthew Selt
Ricky Walden v Martin O’Donnell
Tom Ford v Justin Astley

Neil Robertson is obviously unbackable against amateur Duane Jones and a win for the Welsh player would constitute a big story for the Welshies ahead of Newport. But surely even the most romantic, fiercely patriotic, sweaty, rugby-playing male-voiced choir member with too much facial hair and an unhealthy obsession with male-bonding would not back their fellow countryman in this one. Robbo is 13/8 to win 4-0 but a better proposition may be the 8/13 on Jones not to win 2 frames, both prices at Apollobet. Whilst Ali Carter is also not a price you’d be racing to back, if you don’t think that Gerard Greene will take him to a decider you can get 4/7 on that, which to be fair could be the bet of the century and would be a wheelbarrow job if this was best of nine, Ali surely won’t lose this in an event I know he still likes having won his first ranking title in Wales. Jamie Burnett is a heavy favourite against Craig Steadman but I’d suggest that Stedz is showing form enough to cause an upset in that one, I’d not be surprised if he did. Stuart Bingham won’t mind playing in the cubicles, he’s a hard working player who has grafted through this venue many times to make the top 16 and will treat this much the same as any other match, I think he’ll come through pretty comfortably against Matt Selt. Ricky Walden is there for the taking tomorrow if you ask me, for whatever reason he just doesn’t seem to be himself lately and with The MO’D posting a confidence boosting win over Cao Yupeng in the last round I’d give him a decent chance here, he’ll be bang up for it. Finally we have Tom Ford, who has only won two of his last ten matches, he faces the dangerous Justin Astley who is another that posted a decent win in the previous round, another one that might just produce an upset, but on balance I’d side with Ford but I can’t see him winning easily somehow and this one might go to the wire. EDIT: They have changed the live stream and The MO’D is now not on there, it’s Robbo’s and Ali’s matches.

Selections: Carter, Robertson, Steadman, Bingham, O’Donnell, Ford.

Recommended Bet: 3 points on Carter (-1.5) and Bingham pays 6/5 at Apollobet.     

Ebbo – a bit crap lately.

2.30pm

Ken Doherty v David Gilbert
Andrew Higginson v Adam Duffy
Dark Mavis v Michael Wasley
Graeme Dott v Rod Lawler
Fergal O’Brien v Nigel Bond
Peter Ebdon v Pankaj Advani

Dave Gilbert is a player that I like backing, he’s pretty reliable and one of those players that I wish was higher ranked because he is clearly better than his current ranking suggests, at odds against I suggest he’s worth a punt to beat Ken Doherty. Andrew Higginson has only lost two from his last twelve matches and it would be something of an upset were Adam Duffy to beat him today. Dark Mavis is next up against his SWSA stablemate Michael Wasley, again you would expect the higher ranked player to prevail and it would not be wise to oppose the consistent dark one. Rod Lawler took just under four and a half hours to win yesterday and now faces Dotty, whose form has seen something of an upturn in recent weeks after a spell in the doldrums, Graeme has won all three of their previous encounters and although I wouldn’t rule out a win for Rodders you’d have to make Graeme a strong favourite. Then comes a battle of two of the games veterans, Nigel Bond beat The Ferginator 5-4 just four weeks ago to qualify for the World Open and these two usually have a good old battle, I’d say a decider may be on the cards here and if so it’s impossible to call, I’d say Bond is in the better form of the two lately though. Finally Peter Ebdon is a third World Champion on show in this session and he takes on Pankaj Advani, the man with the piston-like cue action. You just never know with Ebbo but he’s on a very bad run of form lately and was last seen losing all his group matches at Crondon Park, he’s been pretty awful since his run in the International Championship, he’s probably saving himself for the China Open again, it’s a chance for Advani to advance(i).

Selections: Gilbert, Higginson, Mavis, Dott, Bond, Advani.

Recommended Bet: 3×1 point doubles and a 1 point treble on Gilbert (6/5), Bond (5/4) and Advani (11/8) at Apollobet 

7pm

Shaun Murphy v Thepchaiya Un-Nooh
Stephen Maguire v Mark Joyce
Marcus Campbell v Anthony Hamilton
Barry Hawkins v Zhang Anda
Michael Holt v Alan McManus
Joe Perry v Jimmy Robertson

Selections: Murphy, Maguire, Hamilton, Hawkins, Holt, Perry.

Recommended Bet: 2 point treble on Murphy, Perry and Hawkins pays just on 9/4 at Apollobet, add Holt for a 1 point acca.  1 point on Hamilton at 5/4 generally.