The Snookerbacker Blog

The Welsh know how to party

Croeso (that’s the extent of my Welsh in this post I’m afraid). It’s time once again to head to Newport in Wales for the Welsh Open, a regular feature on the calendar now for two decades and one which this time takes on an added significance with it being the final event before we will know who will be playing at the Crucible in two months time as of right.

Having lost to Steve Davis yesterday we already know that Ricky Walden will not be an automatic qualifier and he will be heading to the final qualifying round in the Sheffield Academy rather than the Crucible itself. But it remains a big week for two players in particular in Stuart Bingham and the man who seems to be cemented in 17th spot Dark Mavis.

Bingo is 600 or so points ahead of Mavis so all eyes will be on those two early on. If Ding beats Mavis in Round 1 the 16 will be known around 1pm tomorrow and Stuart can relax, it would take a few upsets and Bingo and Mavis going deep to bring Ronnie into the mix, his Crucible berth is now almost assured and with one win he is definitely there.

The best of seven frame matches up until the quarter final stage is not something that I like from a betting perspective. It doesn’t sound much but the difference between these and a best of nine is immense. 2-0 down in a best of 7 and you need to win 4 out of 5 frames to win. In a best of nine it’s not a great start but you are hardly on the brink of losing.

I understand that this has been done to get everyone onto a match table, but would it really make that much difference given the rolling format to extend it by a maximum of two frames per match? Just don’t have an interval. Oh well, at least there isn’t a shotclock.

Yet.

The preview for the event is below, with quarter, match and outright thoughts. Let’s hope to continue the recent winning run and the best of luck with your bets whether you follow these or your own. 

Quarter One

John Higgins [1] v Liang Wenbo [41] Mon 13 Feb 7pm

Ding Junhui [9] v Mark Davis [17] Mon 13 Feb 11am

Stephen Lee [15] v Ryan Day / Michael Holt Tue 14 Feb 1pm (Day v Holt Monday at 11am)

Graeme Dott [7] v Tom Ford [27] Mon 13 Feb 2pm

John Higgins will be looking to reverse his recent form this week and retain the title he won last season when he could not put a foot wrong. He faces Liang Wenbo whose slide down the rankings continues at a pace. The two have met twice and on both occasions John has won very easily. He isn’t at his best but even so, he should have enough to take care of this match fairly comfortably against a player that can struggle if it gets too tactical. Ding scraped through a tense first-rounder in the UK against Dark Mavis on a fluke and could easily have lost the decider, he doesn’t look sharp at the moment Ding and I wouldn’t back him this week personally, I’d not be surprised to see Mavis win here and keep up the rankings talk for a bit longer before he is confirmed as 17th again. Stephen Lee will meet the winner of Ryan Day and Michael Holt who kick off the event with their final qualifying match tomorrow. These two have never met but of the two Holt is in the better form of late, Ryan will want to put on a show for the home crowd but on recent form I would side with the Hitman. I would expect Lee to beat the winner as he seems in fine form lately. Graeme Dott rarely loses to players ranked as low as Tom Ford in the main ranking events and Ford is a player who has previously struggled at main venues. I’d say Dotty would therefore be strong favourite to progress.

Recommended Bet:

1 point win on Mark Davis to beat Ding at 15/8 with Paddy Power and 1 point win on Michael Holt to beat Day at 5/4 with Boylesports.

1 point win on Graeme Dott to win Quarter 1 at 9/2 with Apollobet. 

Nugget: 70 odd and still at it.

Quarter Two

Shaun Murphy [6] v Mark Joyce [53] Mon 13 Feb 2pm

Ali Carter [11] v Steve Davis [43] Mon 13 Feb 1:30pm

Mark Allen [10] v Ken Doherty [33] Wed 15 Feb 1pm

Neil Robertson [4] v Stephen Hendry [20] Tue 14 Feb 2pm

Shaun Murphy’s strong recent form has resulted in a runner-up slot in the Masters and a losing semi-finalist in Germany and he is coming into form at just the right time of the season. He should not dwell on his 6-0 loss to Maguire in Berlin as Mags was absolutely awesome and probably would have beaten anyone that night with frames to spare. Smurf faces Mark Joyce first up who has been a long time absentee from main venues, when he did make one of course he had a run in the UK last season so it may not phase him as much as some of the other qualifiers and a good win over Andrew Higginson shows he’s in good form, that said, I can’t see him beating Shaun here. What can you say about Steve Davis? He remains as fierce a competitor now as he has always been and proved this by putting paid to Ricky Walden’s top 16 chances yesterday. He faces Ali who won this event two seasons ago and was asked about his pilot’s license by the hapless John Evans afterwards. The Captain needs a win desperately and without a run in this and a strong finish to the season will face the prospect of dropping out of the top 16 himself after Sheffield, when he will be considering his long-term future. He surely has to turn the corner soon and this might be a chance to do it but it isn’t a match I would get involved in despite Ali’s strong head to head record against the Nugget. Mark Allen seems to be becoming everyone’s best outsider to win every event he enters and he still hasn’t won one. He will no doubt be so again here and his opener against Ken should see him safely through to Round 2 where he will face Robbo or Stephen Hendry. Hendo made a 147 in this event last season against Stephen Maguire but went on to play badly for the rest of the match, does he have it in him to still produce? Word is that his game is steadily improving again but Robertson would be a hell of a scalp, I can’t see it happening personally over a format which Neil has proved in PTC’s that he likes.

Recommended Bet: 3 points win on Neil Robertson to win the 2nd Quarter at 5/2 with Paddy Power

Quarter Three

Mark Williams [3] v Andy Hicks [66] Tue 14 Feb 1pm

Ronnie O’Sullivan [16] v Marco Fu [24] Wed 15 Feb 1pm

Stuart Bingham [14] v Mark King [30] Tue 14 Feb 2pm

Judd Trump [5] v Fergal O’Brien [31] Mon 13 Feb 1:30pm

Mark Williams will be the local’s favourite to lift the title in an event that traditionally hasn’t really been a happy harvesting ground for the Welsh boyos. He faces Andy Hicks for the first time for 15 years. Hicks has had three good wins to get here including a 4-1 defeat of Anthony Hamilton in which he compiled a 142 break so he will feel confident of causing an upset and there are some fancy prices around on him doing just that with MJW as short as 1/8 in places. Ronnie faces Marco Fu safe in the knowledge that he has probably done enough already to be lining up at the Crucible, I can’t see him giving this event the dedication he gave Germany and I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost first round and I’d be prepared to back a classy player like Marco to spring an upset, he has as good a record against Ronnie as any of the top players and at 11/4 in a best of seven is value (I know, you can’t spend value…). It’s then the battle of the geezers as Mark King lines up against fellow Essex boi Stuart Bingham. Bingo might already know that he’s safely in the top 16 by the time this kicks off so this may take a bit of the pressure off him, he also has a 5-0 bald head to bald head advantage over Kingy so for me he’s the rightful favourite in this. Then comes the Juddernaught against the Ferginator, Fergal will doubtless try and instill a bit of discipline into proceedings should Judd try any naughty stuff here but I have a feeling we’ll be seeing a bit more of Judd this week and he is my main bet for the winner of the event.

Recommended Bet: 1 point win on Marco Fu to beat O’Sullivan at 11/4 with Betfred.  

The name's Baird. Sam Baird.

Quarter Four

Stephen Maguire [8] v Adam Wicheard [87] Wed 15 Feb 2pm

Matthew Stevens [13] v Barry Hawkins [23] Wed 15 Feb 2pm

Martin Gould [12] v Peter Ebdon [29] Tue 14 Feb 7pm

Mark Selby [2] v Dominic Dale / Sam Baird Tue 14 Feb 7pm (Dale plays Baird at 7pm on Monday)

It’s great to see a couple of new names make it to venues and the fact that they are both from the Gloucester Academy just shows what an advantage it is to players putting the hours in there. Adam Wicheard and Sam Baird are not names that viewers will be familiar with but it will be interesting to see how they get on under these conditions. Adam has his work cut out against Stephen Maguire who is looking in fine form lately, he’s a form horse going into this and it’s a tall order to expect the debutant to start with a win. Another Welshman Matthew Stevens will be wanting to fly the flag here and starts with a tricky opener against King of Speed Barry Hawkins who is another showing good form of late. That match could go either way and isn’t one to bet on. Peter Ebdon won only his second match in ten outings against Adam Duffy to get here and will be wanting to use some of his old grinding tactics on Martin Gould, I wouldn’t put it past the old headworker to pull off a result there as Gould can sometimes let such things get to him and doesn’t compete well in safety battles, if he starts missing a few expect Ebbo to start turning the thumbscrews. This leaves Mark Selby who is another player struggling a bit for form lately, a bit like Higgins in that you know it will reverse soon, it’s a question of when rather than if. The Jester must wait for the winner of the qualifier between Baird and Dom Dale, who will have packed his slippers and stripey socks for when he has to sit in the studio with that Oliver bloke or whoever they have replaced him with this year. I’ve heard very good things about Baird and probably would have backed him had he been a realistic price but the bookies must have heard them too and are taking no chances on him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he beat Dom.

Recommended Bet: 1 point on Peter Ebdon to beat Gould at 6/4 with Betfred  

Recommended Outright Bets:

4 points on Judd Trump to win the Welsh Open at 8/1 with Apollobet

2 points on Neil Robertson to win the Welsh Open at 9/1 with Boylesports

1 point win on Graeme Dott to win the Welsh Open at 25/1 with Apollobet 

Recommended First Round Snookerbacker Acca:

3 points on Higgins, Dott, Allen, Williams, Trump and Maguire pays a shade over 10/3 at Apollobet

As a special for blog readers on the outright market Apollobet will refund all losing bets struck on this market up to a maximum of £200 if John Higgins wins the event – to take advantage please click through from this link

(Sam Baird photo courtesy of Matt at Prosnooker Blog – read his profile here. Sam’s that is, not Matt’s)