The Snookerbacker Blog

Has Ronnie got Judd's card marked?

Tuesday sees the start of the 2nd Round here in York. I’ll be telling you all about my first day at the venue in the post tomorrow morning but for now it’s time to concentrate on the betting side of things again.

12.30pm

Ronnie O’Sullivan v Judd Trump (h2h 4-3)

Of the two there is no doubt that Ronnie played the better in round one and on that form he’ll take some beating given Judd’s very questionable performance against Dale today when but for a couple of outrageous flukes he might well have lost. Judd said afterwards that Ronnie didn’t scare him anymore and that the pressure is still very much on the Rocket as he’s always the man to beat. I’d agree that Ronnie goes into this a worthy favourite and he was in the press room earlier looking relaxed and at peace with the world. Judd didn’t seem to like the conditions today, I’m not sure why he suffered so many kicks as to me the venue is perfect, perhaps it’s hairspray related. Whatever the reason he’s going to have to get his game face back on tomorrow if he’s to stand a chance. He’s not playing as well here as he was in Belgium recently when he beat Ronnie in front of a packed house in a PTC Final. I fancy Ronnie to gain revenge on a much bigger stage here.

Ding Junhui v Matthew Stevens (h2h 5-0)

Ding has benefited so far from both a huge Chinese following here in York courtesy of the University around the corner and a huge slice of luck to get through his first match against Mark Davis. We’ve all seen this before, the wake-up call that a player needs happens early in the tournament and they never look back. Commentators will doubtless use the ‘his name is on the trophy’ line a few times every time he gets a fluke in this match, but as they will probably use exactly the same line later about John Higgins and this morning about Judd I’d take it with a pinch of salt. The head to head between the two will not exactly fill Matthew with confidence, but he was tremendous in the first round against an understandably below par Marcus Campbell and will be a lot of people’s idea of the winner here. It’s clear that Ding is not yet firing on all cylinders but what he is lacking in his game at the moment he makes up for with his winning mentality and his bottle which makes me think he’ll up his game when he needs to here. But there is a bet over at Boylesports which to me sticks out like a sore thumb as whatever the result is here I think it will be close so it’s maximum bet time.

Recommended Bet: 5 points win Matthew Stevens (+2.5 FRAMES) at 4/6 with Boylesports.     

7pm

John Higgins v Stephen Maguire (h2h 7-3)

The World Champion comes into this match having survived the mother of all scares against Rory McLeod in Round 1. He’s had a couple of days to get over his dentist appointment and get his back sorted out and now renews his Highland rivalry with Mags in a repeat of last season’s Welsh Open final. As every regular reader will know Maguire is a player that I like to take on if the price on his opponent appeals. His win over Stephen Hendry included two centuries but in truth he rarely looked challenged by the increasingly faded force of the wonder bairn. This is a totally different kettle of fish and I reckon the 1/2 available on Higgins is the right side of being a bet.

Graeme Dott v Neil Robertson (h2h 4-3)

A repeat of the 2010 World Final when these two sent a nation, indeed a couple of continents to sleep before Robbo lifted the crown in the early hours. They both come into this in great form and for me this could be an absolute belter, unlike their World Final. Their head to head reflects how evenly matched they are and you simply don’t become world champion without a superb all round game and temperament. It is no coincidence that these two have some of the biggest conkers in the game and whoever loses this it won’t be down to bottle. I’ve backed Robbo in the outrights of course and I’ll be rooting for him to win but Graeme is more than capable of causing an upset and I would not put anyone off backing him at the odds. But the bet for me has to be the one over at Paddy Power on the winning margin being less than 2 frames.

Recommended Bet: 3 points win Winning Margin to be under 2.5 frames at 11/10 with Paddy Power

Recommended Treble: 2 points on Stevens (+2.5 frames), Higgins and O’Sullivan pays just under 11/4 with Boylesports. 

If you don’t have an account at Boylesports, open one by clicking the banner below. When you do and bet £20 or Euros you will get £40 or Euros absolutely free.

Just a quick log of the lay off bet for tonight. Seeing as the recommended 9/2 and 28/1 accumulators and another decent handicap double recommended on the original preview here are resting on the laid-back shoulders of MJW tonight I feel it is my duty to cover the stake with an eventuality which I highly doubt will happen.

We all see the adverts about Gambling Aware and Responsibly so I am going to recommenend 1 point win on Joe Jogia to beat Mark Williams at 11/2 with Boylesports. It’s a long time since I have really wanted a recommended bet to lose quite as much as this one.

If you don’t have an account at Boyles, open one by clicking the banner below. When you do and bet £20 or Euros you will get £40 or Euros absolutely free.

Part of being at York is about attending the press conferences and every so often some gems come along. Mark Allen has just finished his and amongst his comments were….

‘Barry Hearn is ruining snooker, the players don’t really matter to him and he is only in this to make money for himself. A lot of players will stop playing because of his changes, he said he wouldn’t touch the UK and he has, will he change the format of the World Championship? You bet he will’

Mark continued ‘It’s not all about shouting out and getting the crowd drunk, he is ruining the tradition of the sport and that is a great shame’ when asked what his answer to this would be he said ‘probably get rid of Barry’

Whatever you think of these comments, it’s great that a player has the balls to say it, much better than certain players who wouldn’t say boo to a goose.

Mark finished the conference with a question of his own ‘anyone else want some honest answers?’

Enter the Playboi.

If you reading this after 7am on Monday morning but before the start of play then I am currently on my way to York to hopefully make it to my B&B and then hotfoot over to the Barbican for the afternoon session. 

The first round finishes today and once I get myself set up over there I’ll try to give you some snippits from the venue itself, so stay tuned for the rest of the week for my own take on how things are going. Wins today for Judd Trump, Mark Allen and Mark Williams will land both the 7 fold and the mad 28/1 12-timer recommended in the tournament preview but I’m not rushing to the checkout just yet as anything can and probably will still happen.

A briefer than usual summary of Sunday and Mark Selby was highly impressive in his demolition job on Ryan Day. Ryan was obviously far too excited about the pandas being flown in to Edinburgh Zoo yesterday to be bothered about snooker and I’m sure got straight in the car to go and see them. Selby winning that one 6-0 and looking as good as anyone so far. On the other table Stuart Bingham became the first seed to get knocked out, despite a highly impressive start to go 3-1 up he was pegged back by Marco Fu who went on to complete the win 6-4. It’s good to see Marco winning again after a poor start to the season by his standards. He also appears to be suffering from amnesia as he then decided to tell the waiting press bloodhounds that this was the first event of the current campaign, he’s obviously been hanging around with the BBC lot who would have us all believe the same.

In the afternoon session Steve Davis took the first frame against Ronnie and we dared to dream, but I’m afraid that was as good as it got for the Nugget who didn’t win another one and was soundly taken care of by a clinical rather than brilliant Rocket. On the other table there was some real slapstick stuff going on between Ali Carter and Rob Milkins, howlers aplenty at various stages in the match with Ali being marginally the less awful of the two and taking the match 6-4, things as they say, can only get better for the struggling Captain.

Last night saw wins for Martin Gould and Shaun Murphy. Gould eased past Peter Lines and Smurf took care of Chinese TV debutant and a man who looks like he is made entirely from pipecleners, Li Yan. Shaun proclaiming afterwards that Li is the most naturally gifted player to come out of China, I’m not sure Ding would agree with that and don’t even start me on Dong Dong…

Right, I’m off to York to dish the dirt. See you later.

1230 GMT:

Judd Trump (Eng) 6-4 Dominic Dale (Wal)

Mark Allen (NI) 6-3 Adrian Gunnell (Eng)

1900 GMT:

Mark Williams (Wal) 6-4 Joe Jogia (Eng)

Stephen Lee (Eng) 3-6 Ricky Walden (Eng)

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