Snookerbacker

November 24, 2011

German Masters Qualifiers: Friday Preview

Filed under: snookerbacker @ 5:49 pm

Friday sees the seeded players 17-32 enter the event as they attempt to win their one match against those that have been doing battle this week to get to this stage. It is also the last chance to look at a German girl for a little while.

Bettingwise at least at the time of writing it’s going pretty well. Thursday morning’s bets more or less ensured that a profit will again be shown at the end of this, I think the access to seeing how the players are actually playing is playing a part in that, much in the same way as I am usually more comfortable in the televised stages of events when striking bets. This only goes to prove what a difference live streaming makes.

Hope things are going ok for followers aswell, now let’s see if we can take those nasty old bookies for a few more quid today.

10am

Ken Doherty [32] 5-4 Sam Craigie [83]
Peter Ebdon [19] 5-4 Jimmy White [54] h2h 6-3
Marco Fu [29] 1-5 Adrian Gunnell [61] h2h 2-3
Jamie Cope [18] 3-5 Yu Delu [72]
Joe Perry [27] 5-3 Rob Milkins [36] h2h 2-1
Andrew Higginson [20] 5-2 Jamie Jones [45] h2h 2-0

Some decent match ups as you would expect to start us off this morning. I actually like quite a few of the outsiders here. The first one I like is Sam Craigie who can keep the momentum he has built going against Ken Doherty. Ken was beaten in a decider by Peter Lines in the UK and while he is still obviously a class act he is being beaten now by players that five or six years ago he’d have destroyed. Craigie to me looks the all round player and can mix it in the tactical department as well as go for his shots, I’ll keep faith with him. My bet of the morning however would have to be Robert Milkins at odds against, he plays Joe Perry who despite a very promising start to the season when he finished runner-up to Ronnie in PTC1 has struggled a bit since. Milkins is in fine form and I think he can maintain this by winning here and adding Berlin to York on to his list of destinations this season. I also think both Yu Delu and Jamie Jones have live chances in their matches. I think from the two I’d say Delu has the better hope against Jamie Cope who is struggling a bit at the moment. Jones is a fine player and called his win over Ben Woollaston in the last round his finest performance as a professional, I might have a little interest as though Andy Higginson is undoubtedly in form he does have a habit of throwing in the odd dodgy performance, he’ll need to bring his A game or something very close to it to the table here you feel. Adrian Gunnell has really hit form and only Marco Fu stands between him and a place in Berlin. Marco and Adrian have both qualified for York of course and I would really like to see Marco regain his form as he’s another that doesn’t belong outside the top 16. I don’t think I’ll touch that one, it’s too hard to call. Then of course it’s the battle of the elder statesmen of the game in Peter Ebdon and Jimmy White. Interestingly, that head to head masks the fact that the three Jimmy has won against Peter have been the last three times they played each other, but amazingly the last time they met was in the 2004 Daily Record Players Championship, remember that? Thought not. Ebbo is struggling a bit this season and having missed out on UK qualification will be desperate to get to Germany. Jimmy has an obvious chance here and is cueing quite well but I can’t help thinking that Ebdon is due a good performance, so I think I’ll stick with Baldy Bonce, but it’s not one I’d bet on.

Recommended Bets: 3 points Rob Milkins to beat Joe Perry at 11/10 with Apollobet. 1 point win on each of Craigie at 5/4, Delu at 6/5 and Jones at 11/8 with a further 0.5 point trixie on the three at Apollobet

2.30pm

Mark King [25] 3-5 Mike Dunn [41] h2h 1-2
Marcus Campbell [24] 5-3 Peter Lines [53]  h2h 1-1
Fergal O’Brien [28] 4-5 Liu Song [62] h2h 2-2
Stephen Hendry [21] 1-5 James Watanna [58] h2h 4-1
Ricky Walden [22] 5-1 Liu Chuang [59] h2h 2-0

Mike Dunn sure has the wind in his sails this week and is yet to drop a frame, he will be ultra confident going into his match against Essex geezer Mark King. Kingy is on the slide a little at the moment after a couple of seasons embedded in the top 16, it’s going to be an uphill struggle for him to get back there at this stage in his career. Given Dunn’s form this week you have to take the 5/4 available on him to triumph again here. We then turn to the King of Crucible Stephen Hendry who warms up for his match against Stephen Maguire in York with a tie against James Watanna, a former Embassy World Championship semi-finalist who actually lost to Hendry back in 1997 at the Crucible. Hendry will detest being outside the top 16 and this is his first real taste of it in front of, as John Higgins put it yesterday ‘no man and his dog’ after he played to a packed arena at the SWSA to qualify for the UK. I think he’ll acclimatise to this and will see the bigger picture that he at least only has to play 1 match in this environment to get to venues, I think he’ll win today. The Ferginator enters the building in what could be a long one against the Chinese Professor, Liu Song. Song tends to throw in good runs in qualifiers when you don’t expect him to and that is what he is doing here. But Fergal is in form and I think he’ll have too much in the ‘grit and steel’ department, so I’d take him to win this, but I don’t think it will be pretty. Ricky Walden is a player I rate highly and he faces Chinese deadpan comedian and Stephen Hendry lookalike Liu Chuang, Chuang took advantage of the Liang Wenbo’s limitations in the tactical department yesterday to win through, but I think Ricky is in a different league to him and would be my best bet of the afternoon. I’ve no strong feelings on the Campbell v Lines match, Marcus has not been winning a lot lately but managed to qualify for the UK with a good win over Ben Woollaston, Lines however is finding a level of consistency which makes him a dangerous opponent, I think on balance I’d marginally side with the Leeds man, but probably not with a bet.

Recommended Bets: 2 points win Mike Dunn at 5/4 with Boylesports. 2 point treble on Walden, Hendry and O’Brien at an Enhanced 27/10 with Apollobet.          

Ryan - Eats, Pots and Leaves

7pm

Barry Hawkins [23] 5-4 Andy Hicks [64] h2h 3-0
Dominic Dale [26] 4-5 Paul Davison [79]
Tom Ford [31] 5-0 Anthony Hamilton [34] h2h 3-1
Ryan Day [30] 5-4 Anthony McGill [56]
Mark Davis [17] 5-2 Michael White [65] h2h 3-0

A remarkable similarity occurs in this session, well remarkable to me anyway. Michael White performed in the UK qualifiers much as he has performed this week, quite brilliantly. He went into his final match full of confidence to face Mark Davis, just as he does here and was beaten quite easily. Is there any reason to suspect the same won’t happen again against a player he has not beaten in three attempts? Well, I’d say no but I’d like White to win as he’s obviously a big talent and deserves to make at least one venue this year. Ryan Day seems to be getting back to something resembling form lately, he faces Anthony McGill, another young man that people are talking about in ‘future world champion’ terms. Day wiped the floor with Jamie Burnett in the UK qualifiers in next to no time and he can win frames at a rapid rate if he’s in the mood.  I don’t expect McGill to trouble him here. Paul Davison has defied the odds and made it here with two decent wins but he’s not a player that I rate particularly highly and I’d expect Dominic Dale to come through easily enough in that one. Barry Hawkins is a player that will be desperate to make Germany having missed out on qualification for York, he plays Andy Hicks who came through a marathon last night to win on the final black against Angles McManus. I think that one could be a tight one and not as one-sided as the bookies prices suggest, they make Hawkins a comfortable favourite but I think the experienced Hicks has a chance. Another very tough call is the match between Ford and Hamilton. Tom battered Xiao Guodong to qualify for York and followed that with a finals day appearance at a PTC, so he’s clearly in form and has a good record against the Sheriff, although the matches do tend to be close. I think I’d marginally side with Ford who I believe is slightly the better player of the two these days.

Recommended Bets: 1 point win on Andy Hicks at 13/8 at Boylesports. 4 point double on Day and Dale pays an Enhanced 21/20 at Apollobet who have put some permed specials up on selections here.

3 points win on Tom Ford at Evens with Boylesports. 

Afternoon and Evening Acca: 2 points on Walden, Hendry, Day and Dale at a shade over 7/2 with Boylesports

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