Snookerbacker

November 23, 2011

German Masters Qualifiers: Thursday Preview

Filed under: snookerbacker @ 5:56 pm

With due respect, she's better looking by far.

We have reached the second round of the qualifiers after a busy couple of days over at the cubicles in Sheffield. The highlight of the event so far being undoubtedly the maximum break by Mike Dunn which had he done it on the telly would have netted him the main rollover prize, in actual fact he just got £3500 (correction) for his troubles.

Now I’m not one to add insult to injury but that isn’t the only thing that the Twitter prankster has missed out on. Usually when someone achieves this perfect frame I will furnish the blog with their image to forever log their great achievement but poor old Mike went and did it in the German Masters which means that he will be replaced by the latest German girl as is the tradition of the blog, like I say I don’t like to kick a man when he’s down but rules are rules after all.

In terms of the betting so far, day one was just 2 deciding frames away from being a perfect day and as I write day 2 looks to be heading for a bit of an in between turnout. Assuming results go our way in the evening session on Wednesday the blog should be showing a profit at this stage of things and hopefully we can add to that in this round with all the winners from the last two days competing.

10am

David Grace [89] 2-5 Sam Craigie [83] h2h 0-1
Stuart Carrington [94] 3-5 Jimmy White [54]
Jimmy Robertson [57] 0-5 Adrian Gunnell [61] h2h 1-0
Alfie Burden [60] 2-5 Yu Delu [72]
Robert Milkins [36] 5-1 Steve Davis [43] h2h 0-2
Ben Woollaston [55] 2-5 Jamie Jones [45] h2h 1-2

Legends of the game and the two players responsible for me running up to my bedroom crying in 1984 continue to defy the laws of ageing this morning. Jimmy White faces Stuart Carrington who broke a long losing spell to beat the frustratingly inconsistent Joe Jogia in a decider in round one. Despite Carrington reversing this losing run I will be very surprised if he beats Jimmy who coasted through his first match against Matthew Couch, who is arguably a stronger opponent. I’d make Jimmy the best bet of the morning here. The Nugget on the other hand faces Rob Milkins who gave Tian Pengfei an absolute hiding. Steve is playing very very well at the moment and you should never write him off, but looking at the prices it would be very foolish to ignore the 4/5 about Milkins with Paddy Power, he’s a very dangerous player and although Steve will try and dictate the pace of the match I get the feeling that the Milkman is coming into some form, he has to be backed at that price. There is an absolutely mouthwatering tie between Jamie Jones and Ben Woollaston, two of the best qualifiers out there, they had a 5-4 tussle in the Australian Open qualifiers which Ben won and I’d hazard a guess that this one will be just as close, no bet. Recent form would suggest that the Evens available on Yu Delu would be a cracking bet to beat Alfie Burden, but Alfie got a long awaited main ranking event win under his belt in the last round and sometimes that can give you the kick you need, I was tempted by Delu, but rate Burden highly enough to resist. Friend of the Blog David Grace will not be liking what I am just about to say but my suggestion would be to take it as a lucky charm into his next match if he reads this. I backed against him in the last round and he won, I’m going to do so again with Sam Craigie, who regulars will know I am keeping on the right side of while he’s still backable, a win over Jack Lisowski can only boost his confidence of making a main venue. I’m also going to side with Adrian Gunnell, who after a terrible run of form has all of a sudden found his game. Jimmy Robertson is a player that blows a bit hot and cold and strikes me as someone that might need to up his tactical side a notch and rein in his attacking instincts at times, Gunnell at his best would win and results suggest he might not be far from it at the moment.

Recommended Bets: 3 points win on Rob Milkins at 4/5 with Paddy Power. 2 points double on Jimmy White and Sam Craigie pays just over 11/8 at Apollobet. 1 point treble on White, Craigie and Gunnell at 22/5 Enhanced odds at Apollobet and a 1 point acca adding Milkins is enhanced at 17/2 with Apollobet. Click on Snooker Specials to find these markets.

Click here for all Apollobet match prices

2.30pm

Adam Wicheard [93] 0-5 Mike Dunn [41]
Jamie Burnett [42] 3-5 Peter Lines [53] h2h 1-0
Rory McLeod [33] 3-5 Liu Song [62] h2h 1-1
Andrew Pagett [71] 1-5 James Wattana [58]
Liu Chuang [59] 5-3 Liang Wenbo [35] h2h 0-1

I have looked at these matches on paper and as ever I sometimes jump to a bet that I will definitely be having, sometimes I stick with it after doing a bit of writing and research (yes, contrary to popular belief I do sometimes do research) and sometimes after I’ve had a good look at things I go off it. As I write at this point in this post I can truly say that absolutely nothing leaps out at me in the five matches above, possibly two, but let’s have a closer look. My eyes, for some reason are drawn to the match involving my old pal Jamie Burnett. He remains for me a very frustrating player in that he is such a great break-builder and actually as good as he ever was in that department if not better which makes it all the more puzzling why he doesn’t win more matches at this level. But he remains comfortable against players he is familiar with and I think he’s a better player than the more consistent Peter Lines, if they were both on their A-game Burnett would win, as ever it’s a big IF, but I’d side with Jay-Bee. You would assume that Mike Dunn has got over his recent health problems and dark thoughts of impending baize doom with his rousing response to playing a bit shit in the UK qualifiers, if that is the case he’d have to be a shoo-in against Adam Wicheard, but Adam did me a favour in the last round and could be the ‘springer’ this week on the back of it. Rory (The Dentist) and Liu Song (The Professor) could have a right old slog. Even if Rory appears to be running away with it by winning the first three frames in as many hours this might only be because Liu is biding his time. It won’t be one that will draw in the crowds but given Rory’s record in qualifiers and his mental attitude you’d have to pick him to get through, but it’s a no bet as I’m a bit busy tomorrow and staring at a scoreboard with a bet on in this would possibly be a good initiative in the torture rooms amidst the fog of war. Andrew Pagett is a dangerous if overly pink player when he is in the mood but there is something about the steady, calm assurance of James Wattana that always makes me side with him in this kind of match. A match I would actually like (I use the term loosely) to see would be James against Rory as it would be more of a battle of wills and minds than a snooker match and I’d like to see who won it. Liang Wenbo faces Liu Chuang and again I can’t pick a winner, Liang is historically the better player, but of late Liu is. I think this is a session where I simply can’t find a bet, so I will recommend and back for interest an oxymoron; a cautious yet wild bet. If you fancy any of the selections, go for it, as in terms of singles if someone asked who would win I would say all of them. But if you only bet one single I’d probably plump for Dunn, or Wenbo or….oh it’s up to you. Best of Luck.

Recommended Bet: 5 x 0.5 point fourfolds and a 0.5 point fivefold on Dunn, Burnett, McLeod, Wattana and Wenbo. The roll-up pays around 11/1 in most places and for the benefit of the blog Profit and Loss I will take the prices at Apollobet. Keep a look out in case they put an enhanced acca bet up here without telling me, the rascals.

If you have this bet I’m sure you’ll do it with your regular bookie. If you don’t have an account with Apollobet and fancy an interest on these matches you can open one by clicking the banner at the foot of this post.

No relation to Davy

7pm

Alan McManus [46] 4-5 Andy Hicks [64] h2h 1-1
David Morris [80] 3-5 Paul Davison [79]
Anthony Hamilton [34] 5-4 Joe Swail [63] h2h 1-1
Adam Duffy [77] 2-5 Anthony McGill [56]
Michael White [65] 5-2 Xiao Guodong [52] h2h 0-2

The final session of this round sees a few interesting match ups and in particular the one between Guodong and the fast improving Welshman Michael White catches the eye. White powered through against Michael Holt in the last round underlining that he is ready to mix it with players higher up the rankings, Guodong continues to make progress too and this has all the makings of a very decent match with possibly a few centuries to boot. While I wouldn’t say it’s the bet of the session by any stretch I was surprised to see a couple of the firms going odds against on the Welshman, I say he’s worth a bet if you can find the price. I watched quite a bit of Andy Hicks in his last match and I have to say he is cueing really well, again he is the outsider of the two against Angles who is yet to play having received a bye in the first round, I quite fancy Hicks looking at how well he played in his last match. Joe Swail at last got a win under his belt in the last round against young Luca Brecel but faces a stiff ask to beat the Sheriff of Pottingham, it has to be Hamilton for that one. I was also impressed with how easily Davy Morris disposed of Gerard Greene yesterday and there is no reason to suggest that he can’t do the same to Paul Davison, he’s another favourite for the treble I think. The only match that I haven’t really got an opinion on is between Adam Duffy and Anthony McGill. Those with long memories will remember that I used to be very keen on McGill and I didn’t see a lot of return on my investment so stopped backing him, but he’s obviously a talented lad, Duffy is also getting good results here and there and he can be forgiven losing to Rory in the UK qualifiers, the poor lad. I can’t call that one as I will admit to only having fleetingly seen Adam play, leave it alone I reckon.

Recommended Bets: 2 points win on Michael White at 11/10 with Blue Square. 2 points treble on Hicks, Hamilton and Morris pays almost 9/2 at Apollobet


Powered by WordPress

Website transfer complete