The Snookerbacker Blog

The Nugget: Saves the Pennies.

So after a great week of qualifiers we now come down to the wire and these matches decide who goes to Telford.

I’m a bit miffed at the fact that for some reason two of the matches played first thing today were only finalised late last night. I can’t help thinking that a certain Mr Davis and Mr Trump will benefit from that but punters won’t. If anyone can come up with a rational explanation as to why they couldn’t have started two matches we already knew in the morning let me know, other than the fact that the Nugget wants to save on the hotel bills that is.

Bettingwise, a nice afternoon yesterday saw a recommended double and treble landed from Sunday’s preview. But disappointing performances by Michael Holt (again) and Marcus Campbell point to the fact that perhaps winning a PTC early in the season is a blessing in disguise. Jimmy came through however and now faces Joe Perry to qualify tomorrow, a winnable match for the Whirlwind to set up a date with Stephen Hendry in Telford.

Still, a couple of bad calls can’t put a dampener on what has been a good week. Even taking the dent yesterday round three saw over a 5 point profit and on the week so far we are 17.57 points up. Let’s hope we can finish with a flourish.

To keep everyone posted, later on, as well as the preview on the four remaining games I’ll announce the Inaugural Festive Sack Competition. You will have to be quick however as it will involve predictions on tomorrow’s snooker and entries will close when the first ball is struck.

Tomorrow also sees the first day of the Snokvent Calendar, which promises to show the players as you’ve never seen them before in the run up to Xmas Day.

Anyway, to the preview and as ever head to heads are included below and prices are right at time of writing. Good Luck everyone.

10am and 7.30pm

Matthew Stevens v Robert Milkins (H2H 1-1)

These two haven’t played each other for 5 years but the two times they have both ended in a deciding frame, 9-8 either way so on head to heads you can’t split them. So the next place to look is the form book and Matthew on paper has been getting better results but you have to take into account Rob’s ‘baby factor’ and the fact that he has a solid win under his belt already. I’m finding it hard to get motivated for a bet in this one but I’ve got a feeling we’ll be seeing blog favourite Matthew at the venue.

Martin Gould v James Watanna (H2H 0-1)

One of the most improved players on the circuit and champion of little spectacle wearers across the globe Gould takes on Watanna who is once again proving that there is life in the old dog yet. In fact looking at a recent photo of James he doesn’t seem to have aged at all over the past 20 years, I wish I could say the same about myself. Anyway, Gould will be keen to cement his reputation by making the televised stages here and it would be a massive boost to his bid to break into the top 16. This run by James reminds me of his very near miss on reaching Sheffield, will he get over the final hurdle this time? I don’t think so, it has to be Gould here.

Recommended Bet: Martin Gould 1/2 at Stan James

Stephen Lee v Dave Gilbert

Surprisingly these two have never crossed swords. Lee was mightily impressive in the Gloucester PTC and because it was live streamed we got to witness that Rolls Royce cue action in top gear. The cruel amongst that wicked internet community claimed that the fact that this was the only PTC sponsored in part by a pie company gave Stevie that extra edge he needed. Apparently he gave all the pies away to Robert Milkins. But whatever made him play that way it worked and on that form he is still a top eight player. Dave Gilbert will hopefully have got a bit of confidence back that has been sadly lacking from his game for a while now and a player with a few wins behind him and with his tale up is a danger. But I can’t forget how well Lee played just a few weeks ago and on that form he’ll win this one comfortably, I have to stick with Stevie though the 4/9 at Paddy Power is too short to recommend.

Could be a real cat and mouse game this one

Tom Ford v Gerard Greene (H2H 1-1)

Tom came through a tricky opener against Drago and judging by the speed of scoring played well to win. Tom beat Gerry 4-2 in a recent EPTC event and both have been taking advantage of the additions to the calendar this season so they should both be match fit. It’s actually a surprise to me that Greene remains the higher ranked player of the two as I think personally that Ford is marginally the better player and on that token I’m going to stick with the Leicester man here.

Recommended Bet: Tom Ford 5/6 at Paddy Power

Steve Davis v Mark Joyce (H2H 1-0)

The head to head encounter was a Grand Prix match in the now infamous Round Robin stage which signalled the beginning of the end of that particular event. Davis winning that 4-3. As ever the Nugget will have prepared for this event far more than he does for the others. He has actually kept his eye in over the summer and has beaten some higher ranked players in the PTC’s. Joyce has now shocked me twice this week which leads me to believe that I have underrated him. But I’m going to oppose him again, that wily old Nugget loves long matches and Joyce will have to out-think, as well as outplay him. The Captain awaits the winner in Telford and I’m going to plump for the ageless Steve to make it.

Recommended Bet: Steve Davis 4/7 Paddy Power

Judd Trump v Xiao Guodong

Four out of the five ‘live contenders’ recommended in the ‘To Qualify’ preview line up in the final qualifying round, the biggest price of which was the 9/1 recommended on Xiao Guodong. This is another that I hope to be able to play in running and a good start for Gwoowy is essential if I’m to do this. Trump should win obviously, but how many times have we said that and he hasn’t? His Chinese opponent has three wins under his belt, this could produce a shock, we’ll see.

2.30 pm

Barry Hawkins v Fergal O’Brien (H2H 2-3)

The head to head statistic masks one potentially important fact, that Fergal has won the last three meetings between these two. Though they haven’t met now for three years and you could argue that in that time Fergal has slipped a little whereas Barry has become a more rounded player. Barry is consistent these days in that he very rarely loses to players ranked below him and in the provisionals Fergal is seven places behind him. I have backed O’Brien to qualify at 11/4 as I have a feeling he is coming into some form, but I backed that as I thought he’d win his first comfortably as he did and on the strength that he would be nothing like that price for this match, which he isn’t. I am toying with the idea of cutting my losses on this one so I hope that it’s close early on to allow me to just have a bit on Hawkins. This is in-running only now for me. Gun to head, Hawkins.

Stuart Bingham v Peter Lines (H2H 2-0)

It’s two years since these two met and the head to heads have produced two comfortable wins for Bingham. Lines has had two battles to get here against inferior opponents to Stuey but all you can do is beat what’s in front of you and he’s done that. Bingham must wonder if he did something wrong in a previous life as not for the first time he is playing this qualifier for the right to face Ronnie in Round 1 but if you take PTC form into account and with respect to Lines, Bingham just doesn’t seem to lose to players like him. Bet of the day in my book.

Recommended Bet: 2 points win Stuart Bingham 1/2 Paddy Power

Rod: In form

Ken Doherty v Rod Lawler (H2H 3-0)

Anyone remember the 1995 Sweater Shop International? No, me neither, but these two met in it before a full 14 years later meeting in Shanghai (The Sweat Shop International?) and coming to exactly the same conclusion, a 5-2 win for Kendo. Just watching the progress of Scouse Rod this week he seems to be doing some pretty heavy scoring and given that these two were more or less plying their trade at the same time as each other and are now firmly approaching ‘established’ status this will be about who is the best on the day. I’m finding this one harder to call than the bookies are and part of me is tempted to have a go on my fellow Liverpudlian at 2/1, all I’ll say is that I wouldn’t back Ken at the current odds, there are better bets out there today, Rod is playing well coming into this.

Oh sod it, it’s been a good week. Recommended Bet Rod Lawler at 2/1 Sportingbet.

Ricky Walden v Liu Chuang

No past meetings to go on and just by his exploits this week the Chinese deadpan comedian is fast becoming a blog favourite. Ricky is now in the provisional top 16 and is the highest ranked player on show today. You get to that status by winning matches like this and although I have been mightily impressed by Liu’s progress and the cash he’s made us this past week I just can’t have him winning this. It has to be Walden, he is a fair notch above the players that Chuang has faced up to now and I expect the scoreline at the end to show that.

Recommended Bet: Ricky Walden at 1/2 Paddy Power

Tuesday’s Toastie Multiple:

Let’s go for a 2 point recommended treble today on Lee, Bingham and Walden which pays just over 2/1 at Paddy Power. I’ll add Tom Ford for a 1 point acca too that pays 7/2 at Paddy Power.

We've got the bookies where we want them, now let's finish the job.

Good Morning everyone. The action comes thick and fast again today with the last of the third round matches.

Another good day on the betting front yesterday with recommended bets Watanna and Chuang coming through fairly easily against their higher seeded opponents.

Fingers crossed that today can be just as good and see some multiples landed, both Milkins and Dale hold 2 frame leads going into this afternoon whilst in the matches starting out I’ll be keeping a keen eye on the progress of Marcus Campbell and Michael Holt. The preview for this morning’s starts is here.

Play to a finish tonight

Marcus Campbell 8-9 Mark Joyce
Stuart Pettman 5-9 Xiao Guodong
Adrian Gunnell 4-9 Jimmy White
Joe Swail 9-2 Simon Bedford
Michael Holt 4-9 Patrick Wallace
Jamie Burnett 9-6 Michael White

Earlier Results:

Robert Milkins 9-4 Matthew Couch
Tom Ford 9-6 Tony Drago
Dominic Dale 9-6 Matthew Selt
Rory McLeod 9-4 Kyren Wilson

Doubles and Treble from Sunday’s preview landed

Tomorrow’s preview is available here

Referee Williams stares in wonderment at Pettman's hair.

Monday sees the conclusion of Round Three. The two White’s, veteran Jimmy and youngster Michael are back to try and make it to the final qualifying round.

Once again I can see an opportunity to make a bit of cash on a couple of these. I know a few people are already on Guodong at odds against to beat serial bad hair day man Stuart Pettman, my thoughts on that match are at the foot of the post.

Let’s hope for a decent conclusion to round three for us poor punters.

All prices are correct at time of writing and head to heads are included where applicable.

Jimmy White v Adrian Gunnell

I said the other day that anyone backing Jimmy to win his last match at 1/3 needed their head examining. He won 9-1 in a canter, shows you what I know. There is a widespread belief from some in the game that The Whirlwind can have one more crack at the big time and when he is on his game there is no doubt he can still produce some fabulous snooker. Given that my hero made me look like a dope the other day, I forgive him. So much so in fact that I am going to recommend a bet on him in this one at what I believe to be a great price. Gunnell shouldn’t get near him here.

Recommended Bet: Jimmy White at 4/5 Skybet

Jamie Burnett v Michael White (H2H 0-1)

Strangely the only time these two have met was almost to the day last year at this stage in this event, White winning 9-8.  Michael had a great win over Davy Morris in the last round and will go into this in good spirits. Jay-Bee shocked everyone by getting to the final of the first ranking event over in Shanghai and played some excellent stuff to get there. We haven’t seen much of him since then and his visits to the PTC’s have not been very successful. I think there are other matches that we can get involved in today so I’d leave this one alone.

Joe Swail v Simon Bedford

Poor old Joe, he loses a lot more than he wins these days and suffered an horrendous run of results last season when he lost his first match in all but one ranking event, leading to a slip from the brink of the top 16 to the high forties in the ranking list. The signs aren’t that good for him this season either, though he did beat Jamie Jones last week. Even in this highly winnable match it would be a brave person that lumped on the Outlaw and a far more attractive proposition is the 7/4 on his opponent. If Joe has one of his off days that could look very big a few frames in.

Rab C Nesbitt

Marcus Campbell v Mark Joyce (H2H 1-1)

One of the two PTC event winners on show today, the Scottish scruff Marcus Campbell takes on Joycey who surprised me by beating Alfie Burden the other day. But when Campbell is firing he is a very good player and by all accounts he’s also one of the nicest players you could wish to meet making me feel a bit mean for calling him a scruffbag, but I just can’t help it, something takes over, it’s like a form of Tourettes. Anyway, the Scruff has lost just 5 of his last 24 competitive matches, it’s fair to say he’s on a roll. Joyce was also on his hit list when he won over in Germany. Paddy Power have this priced right and have Marcus at 2/5. Both Hills and Stan James have him at 8/15. Get on while you can.

Recommended Bet: 2 points win Marcus Campbell at 8/15

Michael Holt v Patrick Wallace

Another PTC winner takes the stage with Holt fresh from his fantastic win in Prague last week. He beat Maguire, Murphy, Selby and Higgins on his way to lifting the trophy on what he described as the best snooker day of his life. There are two things I know about Michael Holt, the first is that he is probably the best example of a confidence player on the tour that there is, heart on your sleeve isn’t in it and secondly he can be very very inconsistent, almost freakishly so making him a dangerous player to bet on. His Czech triumph was entirely unexpected and came out of the blue. If his tail is up he’ll carry on where he left off here, Paddy will try and bore him to death but Holt is the better player by quite a long way and will just need to keep his cool to coast into the next round. I won’t recommend him as the 4/11 is a bit too short.

Xiao Guodong v Stuart Pettman (H2H 0-1)

The head to head statistic dates back to 2007 when Pettman won a Grand Prix encounter 4-2. Guodong, or ‘Gwoowy’ as he has been known this week around these parts gave us all a bit of a lift with his demolition job on Michael Judge and he’ll be confident of winning here too. Pettman was last seen on TV snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Stephen Maguire in the World Open, he has also not been taking full advantage of the PTC’s and has only bothered with a few. He’s either had his head (and silly hair) down practising for events like this or been in the doldrums since his TV howler. There are plenty that will be lumping on the Chinese player and he may seem like the bet of the day to some but I wouldn’t rule Pettman out. He does make venues quite regularly which suggests that he is a very different player in the qualifiers and if I’m honest, gun to head I’d side with him, but it’s a no bet for me as I have 9/1 on Gwoowy qualifying, so hopefully he wins.

Manic Monday Multiple:

I have already recommended one multiple in the previous preview, with Campbell and Holt in it. But for those fancying a go on just these matches I’d go for a 1 point treble on Jimmy, Campbell and Holt which pays just over 5/2 at William Hills.

Good Luck as ever to anyone entering the bear pit on Monday.