The Snookerbacker Blog

Will the Steamer arrive at the station?

Today has gone really well on the betting front. OK Judd Trump forgot how to play safe again and lost but in terms of the match bets, wins for Stevens, Bingham, Higginson and Mark Davis all at odds against added to the profit margins so far. All in all we’re in good shape.

Quarter bets on Stevens (12/1) and Bingham (20/1) to win Quarter Three, although hedged are still in good shape. Both to me look to be possible contenders this week.

In terms of the other matches, Mark Williams received an early Christmas present in being gifted a win against Ricky Walden who will be wondering how he managed to lose and Graeme Dott edged out Ken Doherty in a decider.

So let’s see what we have tomorrow and in particular let’s see how many of you have already noticed the market moves and had a go on tomorrow’s steamer.

The identity of the widespread punt is revealed below:

7.30pm (BST)
Neil Robertson v Peter Ebdon (Head to Heads 0-1)

These two fought out a memorable match in March’s China Open just before Robbo went on to become World Champion. Memorable not because it was a classic match but in that it produced the only 147 in ranking events last season from Robertson, ironically in the only frame he won; Ebdon riding out an easy 5-1 winner after nearly shaking Neil’s arm off after the break. Unfortunately Peter hasn’t issued a statement to let us know how he’s playing, on that subject I had to laugh when he explained how that came about, reading between the lines his explanation read ‘Shafted by Bazza’, who says the chairman doesn’t bear grudges? Anyway, to the match, Ebdon is always a difficult player to call and if he’s in the mood he can make life tough for Robbo here, but I can’t really see him pulling off a win against the World Champion, but I’m not confident enough to bet on it, I never am with Ebdon.

Ali Carter v Dave Harold (Head to Heads 2-1)

The head to head statistic here is quite interesting, in that the two times Ali has won have been on final frame deciders, whereas Big Dave won his match 5-2. But that takes no account of how their respective careers have gone since the last encounter in 2008. Dave has stayed where he has always been and has to be admired for still being a recognisable face on the TV, whereas Ali has climbed to number three in the rankings by virtue of his consistency and hard work. He is also a favourite with the Mrs after sending her a nice gift. In all honesty Ali should win here, he’s a much better player and anyone who is daft enough to be friends with me on Facebook will have seen evidence that he is practising, albeit in a yellow t-shirt, shorts and flip-flops. I’ll recommend Ali at a slightly miserly 1/2 with William Hills.

Mark Selby v Mei Xiwen (Head to Heads 0-0)

Not much to say about this other than it should be a very comfortable win for Selby. He’s 8/13 minus 2.5 frames at Boylesports and for anyone wanting a bet on this that’s probably the one, not for me though, there are other matches of more interest from a betting perspective.

Legend

Jamie Cope v Steve Davis (Head to Heads 1-2)

The previous encounters mean little here as two of them were in minor events. Steve broke the habit of the last couple of years by actually winning a best of nine frame match to get here, whitewashing Scouser Rod Lawler 5-0. He also played very well in the Paul Hunter Classic last week beating Dott, Carter, Mark Davis and Fergal O’Brien before bowing out in the Quarter Final to Shaun Murphy. He is clearly continuing to defy time and prescribed snooker logic. This match is all about pace and who can dictate it, Jamie is prone to erratic, sometimes even sulky behaviour and any crack in his armour will be pounced on by the Nugget who won’t have taken the trip for nothing. But on the other hand Cope could finish this in the blink of an eye, as he is a cracking player and a cool break-builder when he’s in the balls. But I’m going to take a chance on the old boy and recommend yet another age-defying performance, so it’s Davis at 85/40 Blue Square for me. Just don’t blame me when he loses 5-0.

12.45pm (BST)
Ding Junhui v Jin Long (Head to Heads 2-0)

The head to heads between these two come from over five years back so again are, as birthday boy Clive Everton would say ‘only of academic interest’ (Wonderful stuff, Happy Birthday Cliveybaby). I caught a bit of the Premier League match Ding was involved in last week and as expected he didn’t look great, he’s now had to haul himself back to his native China after wrestling with Visa issues to get to the UK all summer, hardly great preparation for the new season. He should win here, indeed the nation will be demanding it, but that 9/2 on his opponent at Stan James does (again pardon the pun) look long given the doubts over Ding’s form. I’ll be kicking myself for not recommending this tomorrow I’ll bet, but I might have a small interest on the outsider here.

The Steamer is Revealed.

Shaun Murphy v Stephen Lee (Head to Heads 2-2)

The last two meetings between these two have gone to Murphy, an easy 9-3 and a tight 5-4. Almost the mirror reverse of their previous two meetings.  I noticed that in this afternoon’s televised games, things were getting, how can I put this? A bit hot and sticky. Stephen Lee struggles the hotter it gets, I’ll not be insulting and point out why, but with that and the fact that Smurf is the better player I think Murphy is probably the bet of the day tomorrow, despite his rather restrictive odds. I won’t recommend it as it’s too short, but if he goes behind early on this might be one to check in running.

Stephen Hendry v Martin Gould (Head to Heads 1-1)

Get that mirror out again as these two have each beaten the other 5-3 in their two encounters, Gould winning the last in 2009. Hendry is an icon over in China and is worshipped by the majority of the audience over there, but there is no escaping the fact that he isn’t the player he was even five years ago, let alone ten. Yet he remains 4/6 against the player who arguably produced ‘the’ session of snooker at last year’s World Championship with a fearless and flawless display of potting for 6 frames against the eventual champion. Gould is more prepared for this, much like Higginson against Day today, that’s why he has been backed in from 15/8 to 11/8 for this. Even at 11/8, I’d argue he should still be backed, I took 7/4. Recommended: Gould 11/8 Paddy Power.

Mark King v Joe Delaney (Head to Heads 0-0)

I’ll admit that I don’t know a great deal about Joe Delaney. He did extremely well to qualify against three players I would have backed against him beating, including the ‘grinder’ Rory McLeod, he won his wildcard easily without making a 50 break, which suggests that either he can mix it a bit with the more tactical players, or, he’s out of his depth. But Mark King wins matches like this, he’s still, yes still, even now in the top 16 snooker players in the whole wide world. There is a reason for that, up to now he wins matches like this, yes I did just repeat myself. Delaney will need to raise his game to beat him in my opinion. Recommended King 4/7 Corals.

For multiple punters you could do worse than a 2 point treble on Carter, King and Murphy which pays just on 9/4 at Corals.