July 29, 2010

Shanghai Masters Qualifiers: To Qualify Market Staking Plan

Filed under: snookerbacker @ 7:42 pm

What was his name again? Ah Yes! That's the fellow! Decent Chap!

Right, first of all let’s get this straight I thought the PTC Event was before the Shanghai qualifiers, otherwise I would not have been bleating on about it all week. I’m so busy looking at a bet I forget sometimes to look at the date, it comes with age, you’ll get there one day and think to yourself, that bloke that used to write that snooker blog told me about this, what was his name again?

But every cloud and all that, in this case the silver lining was the fact that had I not had a peak early doors I would never have spotted the 400/1 on Anthony McGill (now 200/1 and an even shorter 125/1 with Skybet), so I’m not too downhearted.

Anyway, I digress. The early part of this evening has been spent with a printed version of this excellent drawsheet for next week’s Shanghai Masters qualifying in Sheffield (my advice is highlight, copy and paste and put in a landscape Word Document).

Skybet have played a blinder here and put up a ‘to qualify’ market, looking at each little section and seeing who is going to win it. Should be a doddle compared to the PTC, right? Well here goes with the first recommended staking plan of the new season.

I tend to look at these from the right hand column backwards, seeing those entering in Round Four (i.e. the higher seeded players) that may be more vulnerable and then work out who I think might end up beating them from the four contenders they will have to possibly face.

I think snooker in the qualifiers is as open as any sport and betting big on any player to qualify at short odds is a fools game, that said, if you can find two or three that you consider to be more or less ‘nailed on’ a smaller double or treble is your best bet.

This blog is all about spotting value and ‘runs for your money’ so I’ve decided to focus on this with the staking plan. As well as giving a treble, which Skybet have informed me they will elevate to the status of the ‘Snookerbacker Value Treble’ with bigger odds than it currently would pay were they to allow trebles, which they don’t on this market. Fame and Influence at Last!

Do you know who I am? It's spelt S,N,O,O never mind.

So let’s get the treble out of the way shall we? It would be foolish not to pick three players that just have to turn up and win one match against beatable opponents. So I’ll plump for the grafter and Willie winner last season in Mark Davis, the gentleman Joe Perry and the tenacious Mike Dunn. This treble currently would pay a shade below 11/4, I’ve cheekily asked for 7/2 for the faithful bloggers, Skybet have sensibly priced it up at 3/1, the link directly to the page is below.

Recommended: 2 Points win Treble: The Snookerbacker Value Treble (3/1 Skybet)

But I like outsiders, you all know that and I’ve found six of them, yes six of them that have a live chance, some more close to life than others admittedly.

The two that I am prepared to stake 1 point each on are James Wattana at 11/1 and Jimmy Robertson at 13/2. Wattana is an old favourite of mine and is a fierce competitor, he’s not the scorer that he once was but can still hold his own in qualifying company, he will have a tough opener against possibly the man ‘replacing’ John Higgins in this Liu Song but if he can get over his first hurdle he has Joe Swail and Stuart Bingham ahead of him, for me two beatable opponents. Robertson had a good run in PTC1 and lost to Selby in the second, knows the venue and has Burnett and Holt ahead, sounds tough, but they are two players that can find this type of event tough. Holt should qualify on ability, but he might not, he sometimes flaps a bit as we all know.

Recommended: 1 point win on both James Wattana (11/1 Skybet) and Jimmy Robertson (13/2 Skybet)

Now we’ll go for the ‘just in case’ bets, these are the outsiders with just that, an outside chance, as opposed to no chance.

For this I’m going to go with Alfie Burden at 18/1, Anthony McGill at 28/1, Adam Wicheard at 33/1 and Xiao Guodong at 33/1.

Alfie plays lady pro Reanne Evans first up and assuming he gets through that has beatable opponent Matt Selt before coming up against Marcus ‘the scruff’ Campbell for a tie against Andrew Higginson, who hasn’t done too well in the PTC events so far, but is the class player in this section. But Alfie is a confident lad and full of beans, he’s a match for anyone in this league.

McGill is just a player I will back this season, probably to my detriment, while Wicheard if he beats Paddy Wallace (by no means a certainty) has possibly the weakest section in terms of those ahead. Xiao Guodong is a capable player and if he gets on a roll could possibly give Tony Drago, who judging by the PTC isn’t exactly carrying on from last season just yet and the ever unreliable Sheriff of Pottingham a fright before coming up against Ricky Walden, which admittedly will be a tall order, but at the price he’s worth a small bet.

So finally:

Recommended: 0.25 points on each: Alfie Burden (18/1 Skybet), Anthony McGill (28/1 Skybet), Adam Wicheard (33/1 Skybet), Xiao Guodong (33/1 Skybet)

Good luck if you have a go, surprisingly the section featuring Peter Ebdon is not priced up. Does anyone know anything?

Incidentally, Skybet have now also put their prices up for the PTC which starts a week today, that’s a week today (note to self). It’s fair to say they aren’t taking too many chances with the ones I flagged up but are slightly longer on Joe Perry.

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