Snookerbacker

April 21, 2010

The Second Round Begins – Day Six Preview

Filed under: snookerbacker @ 6:04 pm

Day 6 morning makes me very depressed

I really don’t like Day Six of the World Championship and I have a very good reason for that.

This is the day when there is no snooker in the morning. Absolutely none, zilch, nada, zero. Who made this decision? Why? Why? Why? There is no need for it, you hear? No need. It makes me mad every year and this year is no exception. I suppose it will give me a chance to update the profits and losses and things like that in the morning to reflect the first 5 days bets and we do seem to be back on the winning road. So that will keep me occupied, either that or watch old videos of past classics involving the likes of Bob Chaperon, Mario Morra, Jim Wych, Dave Martin and Bernard Bennett.

When they do finally get underway there is the one frame ‘re-match’ of the famous final 25 years ago between Dennis Taylor and one of today’s second rounders, Steve Davis. While Dennis has long since moth-balled his cue, the Nugget continues to baffle the snooker world with his age-defying results (CORRECTION AND THANKS TO ROB, IT IS ACTUALLY NEXT WEEK, I’M A WEEK AHEAD OF MYSELF). I’m sure he could do without this trip down memory lane before he comes out later in the day to face the current champion John Higgins. Let’s hope that John shows a bit of charity and goes easy on him. A win for Davis would be a shock of epic proportions, I’m trying to think of an analogy but I can’t, I think this would be the number one sporting shock ever if it were to happen.

Before this we see Murphy and Greene finishing off and Mark Allen face Mark Davis in their second round match, Davis landing both the recommended bet in the preview at 3/1 to beat Day and the handicap bet in the match previews. Robbo also obliged on the handicap recommendation in his match. All Good. The speculative punt on a return to glory for Peter Ebdon was stalled by the impressive Graeme Dott, who to me now looks to have a realistic chance of making the quarter finals, during the match I managed to back him at odds of 169/1 for the tournament so that might be one to keep on the backburner for later on. Meanwhile serial Crucible flop Gerard Greene won the first frame against Shaun Murphy and then lost the next eight, Murphy showing glimpses of a return to form, but his opponent giving him multiple chances, I’ll put that handicap bet call for Greene down to fatigue.

Despite this we are now firmly in profit for the tournament and now let’s see if we can take some more from the bookies shall we?

2pm

Shaun Murphy v Gerard Greene (8-1 Playing to a Conclusion)

You would be very surprised if Greene managed to win the 5 frames he needs to land the handicap bet before Murphy wins 2. This has the look of a very swift session leaving centre stage this afternoon to the first session of the second round match below.

Mark is setting his sights on going further in this event.

Round 2 Mark Allen v Mark Davis

Head to Heads: 0-0

Firstly a big thank you to Mark Davis for justifying my faith in him to beat Ryan Day at very big odds. But betting has no room for sentiment and I will look at this match like any other, in the cold light of a new day. Mark Allen benefited from Tom Ford’s debut ordeal at the Crucible in the first round but still played well enough. He is the sort of player who is very difficult to peg back when he gets his nose in front and he is usually a strong starter, he also very seldom loses to players who like Davis are outside the top 16. There is nothing to suggest that Davis can cause another upset here and I will discount that as a possibility straight away. The tables to me are still not playing kind enough to go back in on the century breaks markets though I was tempted by the over 2.5 at 13/8 at Paddy Power but given that these bets are the ones that have been causing me the most headaches so far I have decided to ignore that one. The bet here then must be the handicap and I think Allen will win this match quite easily so I am going to recommend:

Recommended Bet: Mark Allen (-4.5 frames 5/6 Bet 365)

I have also decided to treble this bet up with straight win bets on Mark Selby to beat Stephen Hendry and Ali Carter to beat Joe Perry pays just on 9/4 at Paddy Power.

7pm

Steve has to relive a past nightmare before moving on to a new one - or perhaps not, as I have been corrected above that this particular nightmare comes a week today.

Round 2: John Higgins v Steve Davis

Head to Heads since 1994: 16-2

Last Relevant Meeting: Grand Prix 2005, 5-1 to Higgins.

Steve has only beaten John twice in 16 years, both times in the Welsh Open and both times convincingly. Only the most committed or nostalgic Nugget fan would argue that he’ll do the same here.  John was not at his best in Round One against Hawkins but still came through when asked a question and this should be no more than a warm up for him for the next round when you’d expect it to get a lot tougher. This is in stark contrast to last year when he was basically scraping through in what was a very tough draw and you get the feeling with John that he’d prefer a test at this stage to limber up, but this year he won’t get that. This may be the last time we see Steve at the Crucible, but whose to say he won’t make it again next year? He will after all only need to win one match again to do so as he will remain comfortably in the top 32 next year. I hope John doesn’t go too hard on him, something tells me he won’t. But finding a decent bet in this is nigh on impossible. There will be plenty laying into the 5/6 or thereabouts on Higgins -6.5 frames and that may well be the bet of the century, but I’ll just stick with a couple of correct score bets for a bit of interest. 13-6 or 13-7 are both 7/1 at BWIN I’ll probably have a go on both these scorelines. Good luck Nugget, I think you’ll need it.

Stephen Maguire v Stephen Lee (6-3 Playing to a Conclusion)

A very mixed session for both players yesterday. Stephen Lee’s 127 break was wonderful to watch, that cue action really is something, but the next minute he was jabbing and snatching at everything. Maguire looked out of sorts too and just took what he was given. There may be a bit of snooker left in this one yet if Lee can find some consistency.

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