Snookerbacker

April 19, 2010

World Snooker Championship Day Four Preview

Filed under: snookerbacker @ 2:46 pm

Gould made a mess of my accumulator

Day 4 on Tuesday sees four new starters and two matches played to a finish including Ronnie O’Sullivan’s match against Liang Wenbo.

It’s been a mixed bag bettingwise so far and a couple of my more adventurous accumulators bit the dust after Martin Gould’s (pictured right) 10-9 success over Marco Fu.

I didn’t see that coming and a mixture of Fu playing terribly and Gould just well, potting balls with only a fleeting thought about position, with a dash of good fortune thrown in helped him over the line. But credit to him, he took them very well in the last frame and deserved to win overall.

It should  however, all being well pave the way for my main pick Neil Robertson assuming he makes it past Fergal O’Brien, so every cloud has a silver lining.

But let’s be honest, we need a good winner to kick things off for us today, so let’s see what we can find from the very cautious bookmakers to really get this championship working for us.

10.00am

Stuart Pettman - Hair Flick

Ding Junhui v Stuart Pettman

Stuart Pettman gave his fellow Stuart, Bingham a really good hiding to get here when a lot expected the reverse result. It is the first venue that he has made this year having been knocked out in the qualifiers in all other events. This follows his unlikely run in the 2009 China Open when he made the semi-finals with victories over the likes of Ali Carter and Mark Allen, it clearly has taken him a year to get over that experience and the shock. As well as having a rather dodgy haircut, he apparently is also writing a book about being a professional snooker player. Amazon must be wondering if their website can cope with demand and the internet itself may well go into meltdown when that epic comes out. Ding comes fresh from the China Open final and cuts a far more relaxed figure these days, he seems to be maturing and despite his tendency to have a little nap in the middle of matches when he thinks he’s already won. He is world number one provisionally on the one year list and is now firmly establishing himself as a big player in this event. Needless to say I don’t think there will be any shocks here but finding any value anywhere is really difficult. I suppose the only one that may be worth a look is the 4/5 generally available on there being less than 15.5 frames in this match, as it may be onee-way traffic  but there is precious little else to get excited about unless you fancy a shock.

Ryan Day v Mark Davis

Ryan Day as I’ve said in a previous preview is a seed that I think might be vulnerable here. He is ranked one place behind his opponent on the one year list outside of the top 16 and comes here after being well and truly beaten 5-0 by Hendry in China. By his standards he has had a poor season on the table with only a decent performance in the Welsh Open to speak of before losing in the Quarter Finals to Carter and he has had some distractions off the table that will have been taking his attention away from the day job. Of Mark Davis’ last 16 competitive matches he has lost just 5, so he is used to winning.  While the standard of opponent ranking wise hasn’t been in Ryan’s league the confidence he will take from these wins may help him up his game a bit here and he won’t go into it fearing Day. I would not put people off backing him to win the match but the bet for me has to be:

Recommended Bet: Mark Davis (+3.5 frames 4/5 generally available)

Me? Improving? You Must Be Joking.

2.30pm

Neil Robertson v Fergal O’Brien

When I was watching the China Open on Eurosport a few weeks ago one of the commentators, I think it was Joe Johnson said something very odd (not like JJ I hear you cry). He said that a lot of the players regard Fergal O’Brien as ‘the most improved player of the season’, now I feel I must take issue. He has beaten three players this season, school paperboy Sam Baird, Li Hang and the fading light that refuses to ditch that crap two-piece cue he uses Alan ‘Angles’ McManus. In the meantime he has lost in 5 out of 6 qualifying events this year, this being from a former British Open Champion and Masters Runner-Up. Improving? I think not. Neil Robertson is top of my shortlist of winners for this event and it will come as no surprise that I would not expect him to struggle here. He has got the potting and the safety game to cope with Fearless Fergal so I will recommend:

Recommended Bet: Neil Robertson -3.5 frames (4/5 Paddy Power)

Ronnie O’Sullivan v Liang Wenbo (7-2)

Ronnie was basically handed this lead by Liang and showed why he enjoys playing him. I would enjoy playing people who just did whatever you wanted them to and were probably just completely in awe of you. This is like a practice match for Ronnie, but I am a bit concerned that he only needs 3 more when the century count stands at two. To land the 6/4 at Skybet I need another one in this session. Fingers crossed.

7pm

Mark King v Steve Davis (5-4 played to a conclusion)

A noble effort by anyone that sat through the whole session last night as I did. A comical beginning ended up being not that bad a match. No world beating stuff but nice and close and set up for a potentially tight finish tonight. The recommended bet looks promising in terms of the number of frames and perhaps the Legend might just give this match his all again tonight and emerge victorious who knows? At odds of 3/1 in what essentially could come down to a decider if the old head-worker can start off well, I have seen worse bets.

Peter Ebdon v Graeme Dott

Check out the head to head record on these two by clicking here . Graeme’s sole success being on the best snooker day of his life, when he lifted the title here. I’ve come out and said that I think Ebdon might be the dark horse in this event. He is focused, coming into form, determined and I don’t think the draw has been too unkind to him. I strongly fancy him to win this match for all the reasons stated in my original preview so will therefore recommend.

Recommended Bet: Peter Ebdon to beat Graeme Dott (-1.5 frames EVENS Stan James)

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