The Snookerbacker Blog

The final day of qualifiers takes place today, with the exception of the Matthew Stevens match which takes place at the venue in Newport. Seven of the sixteen matches yesterday ended in final frame deciders, two of them scuppering a decent return for small stakes for me. I think this is a sign of the nerves that accompany these qualifiers, which makes them so hard to predict. Chances to reach the venues are few and far between and for a lot of these players, losing a few on the bounce could be enough to make them quit. Hopefully with Barry Hearn’s new masterplan there will be more opportunities for the good players and up and coming players in the lower ranks to actually make a living. But we’ll see.

All matches are listed below and head to heads, where they exist are included after the tie as is who the winner will face next (starting Monday)   The names in bold are the ones I’d expect to come through unscathed, a fourfold of Holt, Cope (come on, McManus can’t win again), Walden and Wenbo if you can get on, only this mornings matches are so far priced up at Sportingbet.

The ones in italics are riskier ones that I’ll only have a small interest on if the price is right. Stuart Pettman to beat the legend that is Dave Harold, the Stoke Potter hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for a while now and though Pettman is no world beater either he can throw in the odd tidy performance.

Pettman - Dodgy Barnet

Tony Drago has breezed through this week and comes up against the very capable Gerard Greene, again a risky proposition to back Drago but given he’s on a roll and Gerard generally falls asleep for a couple of frames nearly every match, if you like the price you see on the Maltese Falcon he’s worth a speculative punt. The next tentative selection is Stuart Bingham to beat the Sheriff of Pottingham, Anthony Hamilton. This again is a risky one and a lot will depend on the price but I like Bingham and I think he’s a decent player. If you discount a 5-4 defeat recently to James Wattana, he doesn’t lose a lot to players outside the top 16. Hamilton is a great player but an underachiever, I think Bingham may have the edge in that one.

Just by virtue of the head to head record Marcus Campbell may beat Nigel Bond, but I have no idea how Bond is playing as he’s had very little action recently, unless you include a recent seniors event that he played in (didn’t think he was that old!), and finally speaking of veterans, Ken Doherty has been showing signs of a return to form now for a bit and I’ll take him to get the better of Graeme Dott, who I have now all but given up on after backing him at treble figure prices for a couple of events last year. Now watch him win it!

Nigel Bond - Licensed to Pot

10am

Match 49 – Joe Swail v Mark Davis (4-2) Winner Plays Ali Carter

Match 50 – Michael Holt v Liu Song Winner Plays Neil Robertson

Match 51 – Dave Harold v Stuart Pettman (0-1) Winner Plays Stephen Hendry

Match 52 – Gerard Greene v Tony Drago (0-2) Winner Plays Ryan Day

Match 53 – Stephen Lee v Andrew Higginson (1-0) Winner Plays Marco Fu

Match 54 – Fergal O’Brien v Li Hang Winner Plays Mark J Williams

Match 55 – Barry Hawkins v Ian McCulloch (3-1) Winner Plays Peter Ebdon

Match 56 –  Steve Davis v Dominic Dale (5-2) Winner Plays Stephen Maguire

4pm

Match 57 – Stuart Bingham v Anthony Hamilton (2-0) Winner Plays Ronnie O’Sullivan

Match 58 – Jamie Cope v Alan McManus (1-0) Winner Plays Ding Junhui

Match 59 – Ricky Walden v Tom Ford (1-0) Winner Plays Mark Allen

Match 60 – Matthew Stevens v Barry Pinches (1-1) (will be played in Newport) Winner Plays Shaun Murphy

Match 61 – Judd Trump v Rory McLeod (1-1) Winner Plays Mark Selby

Match 62 – Nigel Bond v Marcus Campbell (0-3) Winner Plays Mark King

Match 63 – Graeme Dott v Ken Doherty (2-7) Winner Plays Joe Perry

Match 64 –  Liang Wenbo v Michael Judge (0-1) Winner Plays John Higgins

'This time next year we'll be millionaires' Hearn keeps his promises.

Barry Hearn’s influence seems to have worked wonders again and he has secured sponsorship at the eleventh hour for the Welsh Open which starts on the 25th January. Hearn, who took over as Chairman of World Snooker last month, said: “This is a further boost for snooker and it proves we are definitely moving in the right direction for our sport.

Having Totesport.com, one of the biggest betting brands in the World, sponsor the Welsh Open demonstrates the appeal of snooker. We’ve now got sponsors on board for four of our five UK tournaments and I’m sure that there are more to come. We look forward to working closely with the team at Totesport.com to make this tournament a great success.”

This is further testament to the direction in which snooker seems to be heading. Gambling and snooker have always been closely linked so it seems only logical to approach the bookmakers and exchanges to call in some past favours. It’s also another positive move by Hearn, securing sponsorship for a tournament that has routinely lost World Snooker money for years. Just last week Hearn estimated that each year the staging of the Welsh Open costs World Snooker £200,000 in losses.

After not getting involved this morning (with Jimmy managing to squandor a 4-0 lead to lose on a respotted black – how does he do that?) I feel like having an interest on the 4pm starts. These qualifiers are minimum stakes only for me, they are incredibly difficult to predict. But there are some decent looking ties, I like a bet and one in particular that takes my fancy from a betting perspective is Alan McManus v David Morris. McManus is a battler but he is one on a miserable run of form at the moment. He has lost 9 from 12 competitive matches since 2008, only chalking wins against Stuart Pettman (who has returned the favour twice), Jamie Jones and Paul Davies. His list of losses reads more like a ‘who’s that?’ than a ‘who’s who?’ of snooker.

Alan McManus - on a miserable run of form

Morris isn’t a player to set the world alight but has had recent wins over Rory McLeod (trust me, he’s better than he looks on the TV, honest) as well as running Jamie Cope quite close. At 5/6 I think Morris is worth a bet to continue the Scot’s losing run. But a note of caution, McManus is one of those players that I will never back to beat anyone, you need to factor in this totally biased opinion when having a bet. Of the other matches I like McLeod at 2/5, Hamilton at 2/5 and Ken Doherty at 1/2. This roll up pays around 9/2 at Paddies. The brave might also want to include a favourite of mine, the bespectacled croupier Martin Gould who is 8/13 to beat Barry Pinches, the ice cream salesman from Norwich.

So I’ll probably have a single on Morris and a few combinations of the other four. Good luck if punting.

Jimmy White - A good thing against McCulloch?

Early prices up for tomorrow morning’s matches. Nothing to get excited about for me there and I probably won’t have a bet. But for those that would like one, Jimmy White might be worth taking a chance on against McCulloch, who isn’t the player he once was at the moment and old Jimmy did beat him comfortably a few months back in a similar event. I won’t be backing Drago again but he might just pop up and beat the inconsistent, unpredictable Jimmy Michie if he is in a decent run of form, he’ll be desperate to get to the venues again that’s for sure. It could pay a bit to take on a few favourites, Hicks, Song and Gilbert all have claims and are odds against. Selt seems to be in good form and the 5/6 against Dale might look generous come 12 noon tomorrow. But a day for a watching brief rather than a bet I reckon.

Championship League groups well under way with Judd Trump winning yesterday, edging out my pick Mark Allen in the final. Wenbo and Ebdon enter proceedings today and I have staked a small interest on the Chinaman to win the group at 9/2. This is a lottery, but the relaxed atmosphere might just suit Wenbo. Marco Fu has been playing well in these groups, unreal considering he went to pieces in the Masters. I can’t see Ebdon taking to this event and wouldn’t be surprised if he went the same way as Hendry and got knocked out at this stage.

Welsh Open qualifiers today. Nothing really stands out to me though I’d expect Dave Gilbert, Tom Ford, Andy Hicks and possibly Mark Joyce to go through at short odds. For a bit more value perhaps it’s worth looking at Tony Drago at odds against (11/10 with Sportingbet) against Peter Lines, Drago is inconsistent and infuriating to back but despite Lines recent successes he might still have too much for him if he has a good day. Jimmy White is favourite for his first outing since Wembley against Jordan Brown and I’d expect him to win that one. But no strong opinions on these.

I do have a strong opinion on the Welsh Open having looked through the draw. But until I see the opening prices I won’t be putting it up on here.

Read an article yesterday with Ronnie saying he won’t win another world title playing like he is. Unfortunately he also took the opportunity to take a swipe at Masters Champion Selby saying that ‘he wouldn’t win one either’. To me it’s all very well dismissing yourself but I think he’s a bit out of order doing that to Selby after his epic win on Sunday night. You can read the full story at:

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/snooker/2010/01/19/ronnie-o-sullivan-i-ll-never-win-another-world-title-playing-like-this-86908-21978333/

Top Drawer - The Great WT

The word on the street is that Barry Hearn, the new chairman of World Snooker is meeting to discuss future TV rights with the BBC today. Contracts with the BBC and Snooker are up next year.

I’d be disappointed if the Beeb lost the rights to the World Championship, the Masters and the UK Championship. I know that a lot of people on Betfair in particular would prefer the snooker to be shown on Sky but I can’t see what advantage that would give. OK the BBC can get a bit cheesy sometimes but all in all the coverage is pretty good behind the red button.

I for one hope that the big events stay with the Beeb, just get Clive Everton back in the commentary box and give Neal Foulds the nod over the ‘more suited to studio’ Parrott and Davis.

Ask yourselves, what would we do without Willie?

Below I have posted up all the predictions I did recently for the Masters.

Sunday 10 January 2010

11am

Mark Selby v Ding Junhui

Head to Heads: 3-5

Major Events: 1-1

Last Meeting: 2-2 Matchroom Championship League 2009

Ding fresh from eating all the pies against a frustrating Selby that is beginning to become a serial loser. I can’t see Selby coming back to form in this one, even if he does manage to beat Ding he won’t be winning this week in my opinion. Ding to win for me.

RESULT: Selby wins against a Ding that hadn’t practiced since Xmas! A great start, but it does get better..

NB 2.30pm

Marco Fu v Peter Ebdon

Head to Heads: 2-3

Major Events: 2-3

Last Meeting: 16-17 2006 World Championship

With the exception of last week at Crondon Park Marco has been woeful this season so far. His confidence may have improved from some decent wins, but Wembley is a different kettle of fish and even though Ebdon doesn’t always perform here I’d fancy him to just pip Marco on will alone.

RESULT: Ebdon win.

NB 7pm

Mark King v Jimmy White

Head to Heads: 3-1

Major Events: 3-1

Last Meeting: 5-4 Shanghai Masters 2008

Fresh from the jungle, Jimbo will have the crowd well up for this. His mates from the bush will be watching so it promises to be full of razzamatazz tonight. But make no mistake, Jimmy will have to improve immeasurably to beat King. He isn’t the type to let this get to him. King to win.

RESULT: King win.

Monday 11 January 2010

11am

Mark Williams v Rory McLeod

Head to Heads: 0-0

Rory struggles at the venues. MJW showing snippets of form. I think MJW wins this one with some to spare.

RESULT: Williams wins 6-2.

NB 2.30pm

Shaun Murphy v Stephen Hendry

Head to Heads: 4-4

Major Events: 1-3

Last Meeting: 3-3 Premier League 2009

A lot of people fancy Murphy this week but I’m not one of them. He had flu when Ding beat him in the UK but his performance and cueing at Crondon Park last week was not great. He should beat Hendry but if it shows signs of going close this could well be a shock. Make no mistake that Hendry is still, on his day is as good as Murphy. But will it be his day?

RESULT: Murphy wins 6-4, Hendry misses a golden chance to cause a shock and Murphy flukes the match ball.

NB 7pm

Stephen Maguire v King or White

Mags will fancy his chances against either in yet another great draw for the scot up to the semis, how does he keep getting these draws? Any less than a semi-final appearance will be deemed a failure. King can beat him, but he’ll have to dictate the game. Jimmy won’t beat him.

RESULT: Maguire beats King.

Tuesday 12 January 2010

1.30pm

Ronnie O’Sullivan v Neil Robertson

Head to Heads: 3-2

Major Events: 2-2

Last Meeting: 0-3 Championship League 2010

You have to stick your neck out sometimes and for me the 14/1 on Robbo for the title is a cracking bet. Ronnie has been off colour now for a long time, long potting – Robbo wins every time. If Robbo can keep Ronnie on the baulk cushion and frustrate him I think he’ll win with a bit to spare. I’ve backed him outright and if he beats Ronnie I’d expect him to go at least second favourite.

RESULT: Robertson takes a 3-0 lead only to be pegged back by the Rocket. Ronnie eventually wins 6-4. I still think the 14/1 was worth a punt as he’d have gone close if he’d beaten Ronnie.

7pm

Ali Carter v Williams or McLeod

Ali will fancy his chances against either and I wouldn’t bet against him.

RESULT: Williams beats Carter comfortably!

Wednesday 13 January 2010

2pm

John Higgins v Mark Allen

Head to Heads: 3-1

Major Events: 2-0

Last Meeting: 5-1 Grand Prix 2009

Another cracking match but with Allen being largely invisible so far this season and given John’s record against him you have to fancy Higgins here. I expect it to be close as Allen does seem to raise his game for the big matches, but Higgins is superb under pressure and only either the brave or the stupid would bet against him if this goes close. Higgins for me.

RESULT: Allen beats an out of touch Higgins.

7pm

Ryan Day v Joe Perry

Head to Heads:1-1

Major Events: 1-0

Last Meeting: 2-2 Matchroom Championship League 2009

Two players struggling for form. Day was woeful last week at Crondon Park, not winning a match and he seems to be in freefall. Perry hasn’t been much better but is always a player that can punish mistakes with a 50 or so and a good safety, this might be too much for Ryan. If Day brings his best game he wins as he’s the better player, anything less and Perry wins, either way I’d expect Maguire or King to knock the winner out in the QF.

RESULT: Day beats a woeful Perry 6-0.

There have really only been two out of ten decent matches so far and both Hendry and Robertson are unlucky not still to be involved. I still can’t understand how the draw was manipulated so that the wildcard match winners weren’t pitched against the numbers 1 and 2 seeds. Robertson must feel a little aggrieved to have ‘drawn’ Ronnie in R1 and if this was a ploy to manipulate the draw for entertainment purposes then I think it’s backfired. Decent individual performances from Williams, Selby and Day however, but did they really beat anything?

So to the last eight:

Thursday 14 January 2010

1.30pm

Ronnie O’Sullivan v Peter Ebdon Ref: Jan Verhaas

H2H (since 1994 in major events) 9-9

Last Meeting 9-3 UK Championship 2009

Ronnie was up against it at 0-3 down to Robbo and whilst I thought Robbo squandered a couple of chances that he’d normally have taken you can take nothing away from the Rocket as he proved once again that he is the best in the balls. By his own admission his long game has ‘gone’ and that makes his win even more impressive. I don’t see any reason why Ebdon should reverse the last two comfortable Ronnie wins against him. The days of Ebdon getting under his skin seem to be over. Ronnie should have no problem booking his semi final slot with ease this afternoon. I wouldn’t bet against him knocking in a very high break in the process.

RESULT: Ronnie wins comfortably.

7pm

Mark Williams v Shaun Murphy Ref: Eirian Williams

H2H 1-2

Last Meeting 5-2 Northern Ireland Trophy 2008

Murphy played superbly in parts against Hendry but was gifted his 6-4 win. The big worry for anyone backing Murphy was his inability to close out the match and he looked very nervous, but with the almighty on your side you always have a chance. Williams came up against a woeful McLeod and a dreadful Carter but he did what was necessary. I’ll be taking him to up his game again here and set up a clash with the Rocket for a cracking semi-final.

RESULT: Williams upsets the odds and wins 6-4.

Friday 15 January 2010

1.30pm

Stephen Maguire v Ryan Day

H2H 3-1

Last Meeting 5-4 Shanghai Masters 2008

A much needed win for a low on confidence Ryan Day last night should improve his outlook going into this match. If he’d have toiled and struggled against Perry I’d have taken Maguire every time here. But now I’m not so sure, Mark King suggested that Maguire should be fitted with a bib for his spoilt child antics when things aren’t going his way and I’ve never been one to follow the Scot who I firmly believe has had his days in the sun. Day might just surprise a few here, I’ll side with the Welshman but will probably stop short of having a bet.

RESULT: Maguire beats a shocking Day 6-1.

7pm

Mark Selby v Mark Allen

H2H 2-0 (One in Championship League)

Only Meeting in a major: 6-5 Masters 2009

The only final now that would attract the viewing figures that a Masters final merits would be O’Sullivan and Selby and that is how you can’t help thinking this is going to pan out. Selby came up against a jet-lagged, surprisingly unprepared Ding in R1 but did little wrong and looked again at ease with what must be his favourite venue. Allen beat a John Higgins playing at his worst for a decade, but he does raise his game, isn’t scared of winning and is a player to be feared. This could be a close one but I have a strong suspicion that we’ll be seeing Selby on Sunday so I’ll stick with the Jester.

RESULT: Selby wins 6-5.

So the semi-finals are here and see a resurgent Mark Williams against the holder Ronnie and the current (but not provisional) world number 2 Maguire against Selby, who again seemed at home at the back end of things last night.  The QF’s recouped the (largely Ali Carter inflicted) dent in my profits with three winning bets out of three, I stuck to my last preview caution and left Maguire and Day alone as it was by no means certain that Day had shaken off his confidence problems and so it proved. Since Ronnie beat Robertson I’ve had an inkling that there might be a repeat of last year’s final, but I have been known to change my mind so here goes….

1pm

SF1 Ronnie O’Sullivan v Mark Williams Ref: Michaela Tabb

H2H (in major events since 1996) 13-5

Last Meeting: 5-3 Shanghai Masters 2008

Whatever happens today it is nice to see Williams back in a big semi final and I for one would love to see him win. Given Ronnie’s conviction after his last match that he’d rather be 3-0 down that 3-0 up then perhaps Mark should just smash the pack for the first three frames and let the Rocket crash land later on. Williams, for all his titles doesn’t have as good a record against Ronnie as some of the other top players and he has lost each of their last seven meetings. So, is there anything to suggest that he can break this cycle today? Short answer, no. I can’t help thinking that this is just a step too far for the Welshman who performed brilliantly in beating Murphy and has managed to raise his game and improve each match. But Ronnie is a different proposition and Mark will have to be at his very best to win, also, if it goes close with Mark having been out of the big time for so long now it’s by no means certain that he’ll cope with the pressure at the end. I hope it’s a classic, I hope Williams wins, but  don’t think he will. However I’ll probably back him to win at least 4 frames as I have a feeling it might just get twitchy.

RESULT: Ronnie wins 6-5 and yes, it was a classic!

7.30pm

SF2 Stephen Maguire v Mark Selby Ref: Jan Verhaas

H2H 1-2 (with one draw)

Last Meeting: 5-6 Masters 2008

Tellingly, Maguire said after his win yesterday “I have to find something else, I have to up my game. If I play like that again there’s a chance I might not win a frame in my next match. Maybe somebody will spark a light in me and things will start to click again it might raise my game”. He’s not wrong there. He has managed to reach the semi-final of the UK and the Masters with wins against: Michael Holt, Stuart Bingham, Peter Lines, Mark King and someone doing an impression of Ryan Day. Ding beat him comfortably in the UK semi-final and I’m going to go all out and say that Selby can and will do the same. Given that even if it goes close Selby has a 6 out of 6 record in final frames here, you’d have to be very confident of a poor performance from the Jester to take him on. He is slowly but surely working his way back into the big time and has at least beaten players that can be considered his peers over the last few months (Cope, Hendry, Ding and Allen), so all roads point to a win for the Jester from Leicester.

RESULT: Selby wins comfortably.

The Final

Ronnie O’Sullivan v Mark Selby

Ali in the Jungle v The Underdog

The Rocket v The Jester

H2H: 7-2 (with one draw)

Finals: 2-1

Last Meeting 3-2 (Championship League 2010)

Last Ranking Meeting 9-3 UK Championship 2009

Hard to find any value in the betting markets for this one, but as a gambling man I’m going to just have a speculative punt on a correct score and leave it at that, a very good week puntingwise and not going to get greedy on a match in which anything could happen.

Ronnie isn’t playing as well as he was going into the UK clash last month and Selby isn’t playing as well as he was going into the final here last year. Ronnie only seems to be getting bothered about his game when someone is looking like beating him and one might argue that Mark Williams should be in the final after yesterdays chances, but like I said on the semi final thread I did think he’d struggle to make it over the line and he did. I’d like to say that Ronnie won’t get away with leaving chances like that to the Jester but he just might. Williams probably would have beaten Selby if the draw had panned out differently.

I find this match incredibly hard to call, Ronnie might turn on the style and run away with it but something is telling me that it will be a close one, primarily because Ronnie will want it that way. I can’t see Ronnie losing unless he finally implodes emotionally, but I’m not sensing that this will happen on the table unless the Jester begins to get to him with his over the top banter. Selby’s main hope is that Ronnie will feel that he’s ‘had his final’ yesterday and has nothing more to prove but that’s a slim hope. For big punters looking for a splurge, the 5/6 on Selby -2.5 is worth a look but I’d be more tempted by the 6/4 on offer for the Jester to make the highest break of the match, he was a consistent high breaker last season and will play out breaks where Ronnie might not. In terms of a correct score bet for those just looking for an interest, I’d have a bit of the 10-8 or 10-9 to the Rocket.

Whichever way this goes, it’s been a mixed bag in terms of entertainment value this week, some very poor performances from Perry, McLeod, White, Ding, Day, Fu, Carter and Higgins. Unlucky draws for Robertson and Hendry and mediocrity from the rest of them. Star of the tournament for me has been Mark Williams and hopefully he’ll overcome the ‘over the line’ thing sooner rather than later and be a challenger at Sheffield.

RESULT: Selby comes from 3 down to win a thrilling decider 10-9 and scoop the prize. He also hit the match top break of 136.

Thanks very much for logging on. I will attempt to reward your loyalty with a few winning predictions. I can’t promise a 100% hit rate, I can’t promise that these predictions will change your life and bring untold riches, big houses, fast cars and beautiful women (or men, whatever floats your boat, none of my business) falling at your feet but what I can promise is that I’ll do the research and give a rational explanation as to why I am predicting any outcome.

As any of you who are members at Betfair will know, I regularly post previews on there. To give you an idea of what to expect from the blog I will post up all my recent predictions on the PokerStars.com Masters. For any of the ‘Daqars’ (you know who you are) that read this, you’re more than welcome. I don’t think it’s long before they stop me posting on there as I haven’t had a bet on the ‘Daq’ for about a year now. They did stop me before but I threatened them with an email to the Gambling Commission for ‘enticing me to have a bet when I don’t want one’ and that seemed to do the trick.

I will be concentrating largely on the big TV events, but if I see a bet worth having in the qualifiers I’ll post this up too. For the rest of this season I will be concentrating my efforts on The Welsh Open, The China Open and the Bet Fred World Championship.

If you would like to follow my tips feel free. Like I say, I’ll usually be able to back these up with some rationale. Whatever you decide to do, happy punting.