Snookerbacker

January 26, 2010

Totesport.com Day Three Preview

Filed under: snookerbacker @ 8:32 pm

Hats off to John Evans, a commentator with a different angle.

Very nearly a 100% hit rate yesterday but for the Welsh contingent. However, with the joys of trading the 5/1 on Drago was worth the effort. Murphy again flattered to deceive and I think something Terry Griffiths said is very true, he looks a better player than his record suggests. I’ve always found him one to take on at the exchanges as he has that aire of confidence without the game to always back it up. Anyway, one maximum bet contained in the preview below, I managed to get Evens on him, hope you early risers do that too.

So to Day three.

(Head to Head in brackets)

Not from this angle I can't

1pm

Mark Williams v Fergal O’Brien (5-4)

Mark J enters the fray (frey?) against Fearless Fergal, who has beaten the Welshman on their last three meetings in 2003, 2005 and 2007. Now Fergal is a funny fish, no that’s not the start of a limerick, before beating Li Hang in the last round he’d lost seven straight matches against similar standard opponents (barring one defeat to Ronnie), it’s fair to say that the former British Open Champion and Masters Finalist has fallen off the radar, but one thing he does do is play well (well he battles, he never entertains) on telly and there is a possibility that this is just what he needs. But MJW has hit form and assuming that he doesn’t let the immense pressure that this tournament seems to put on the Welsh players get to him he should win. But I think this one might be closer than the odds suggest.

Predicted: Williams, a narrow win.

Ding Junhui v Jamie Cope (2-2)

After Ding consumed copious amounts of Pukka Pies over Christmas and missed his flight back to Blighty in time to practise for the Masters he performed very poorly against Selby (ok ok I know he gave them all to the homeless of Sheffield) . I think maybe because it was the first match, under the radar, people didn’t realise that if Ding would have performed he would have won. Curious…. I like Jamie Cope and he is well capable of beating anyone but it’s just his temperament that puts me off him. Another ifs and buts match but to me it seems like the sort of scene that can get Jamie some of the ranking points he needs to break into the top 16. I think Ding will do very well at Sheffield, he might win in China, I just can’t see him winning this, so I’ll take a chance on Cope.

Can't see this from my angle

Recommended: Cope.

Joe Perry v Graeme Dott (3-2)

Myself and a shrewd judge on Betdaq (that you may be meeting on here live from China in March) have been backing Dott to make a resurgence now for far too long.

OK Graeme, here’s the deal, you win this one right? Joe is playing like a second prize muppet and you are a former world champion and you are Evens, EVENS to beat him. Dott to win. Last chance Graeme or you will go into the same file as Maguire and Pinches. You have been warned.

Recommended (and paper thin reputation on the line):

Dott to win. OK I’ll warn you again. Evens. EVENS! Did you watch him in the Masters? And relax…….

3pm

Mark Selby v Judd Trump (2-1)

A great performance from Selby in the Masters, he surprised a lot of shrewdies with that win. Anyway, the Jester needs ranking points, he’s provisionally 13 for next year with three ranking tournaments to go. Trump is looking to break into the top 16 and is currently languishing at 26, he needs a run in this but it’s Selby’s big chance to secure his top 16 place before a potentially terrible draw in Sheffield (but he’s big in China). I can’t call this one, I think it will be a great match and very close but I have to predict someone so:

Prediction: Trump

You be the Judge

John Higgins v Michael Judge (2-1)

Higgins is sheer class, he let himself down at Wembley but he hadn’t been bothered to practice as the stupid man has become obsessed with his family and going on Mastermind to answer questions about Dallas (Kristen shot JR by the way, hope I’m not spoiling any boxsets), will these great players ever learn? The secret of happiness is on the baize, not with a stable future and nice Christmases with the kids. Just look at Ronnie, the picture of joy, he’s not a puppet, as he keeps telling us.

Recommended: Higgins win.

NB 7pm

Match 17 – Ali Carter v Neil Robertson – CORRECTED WRITE UP THANKS TO BAGGIO ON BETFAIR (Head to Heads 1-2)

Strange but true but these two have not met in an event outside of the Championship League and I don’t even have a record of the results there, so maybe they haven’t, curiouser and curiouser (This first sentence is a lot of bollards, their one Championship meeting was a 3-1 win for Robbo, and my goldfish like memory managed to forget Robbo beating Ali at the Crucible last year 13-8. The only other meeting was here last year where Ali won 5-3 – none of this changes my opinion though). Anyway, these two are obviously similar players, attacking and go for their shots. That would suggest that high breaks will be the order of the day and anyone playing on these markets might reap rewards. But to me, they both looked a bit nervous in patches in Round 1, but they weren’t seriously challenged, so it could well be scrappy and a good match for traders. I thought Robbo would easily make the semi-finals at the start and I’m not going to change my mind. I’d take him to up his game when challenged, say 5-3.

Recommended: Robertson to win.

Match 18 – Stephen Hendry v Ryan Day (4-2)

In every meaningful match that these two have met in Hendry has won. In every frame Hendry won yesterday he had a break over 50, Ryan managed a 90-odd against an open player like Drago and a few 30’s. Hendry is playing very very well with his new cue, Ryan is struggling. Last night his beaten opponent Dave Harold commented “He was mesmerising, I don’t think he can play any better than that. It was the like the Hendry of old, he was brilliant tonight. That was vintage stuff from him.”  

If both were at their best this would be a Hendry win, if both were at their worst this would be a Hendry win. Hendry, Hendry, Hendry. This is the best Even money shot I have seen in a long long time. Maximum bet recommended.

Recommended: Hendry at Evens or thereabouts (Stan James currently best). Lump on.

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